It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the tight ends. Today, we take a look at Dalton Schultz, who is one of the last men standing in Dallas. The market hasn’t seemed to correct for this fact, is this something we can take advantage of? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Dalton Schultz ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: TE6, 58 overall
Average Auction Value: $5.9
Dalton Schultz Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Dalton Schultz Fantasy Football Overview:
In 2020, we called Dalton Schultz’s breakout “The Blake Jarwin Flow Chart” breakout because Jarwin was a hot breakout candidate, and he tore his ACL 25 snaps into the season. Schultz went on to have just four top-12 performances in 2020, but then things really got going in 2021. Dalton Schultz tied with Kyle Pitts, Hunter Henry, and Dalton Schultz for the fifth-most TE1 weeks last season, with seven, according to BRotoFantasy.com.
But, how much of it was bunk? We’ve established that basically falling into the end zone guarantees a TE1 week, and Schultz had six games with a touchdown. That means he had… one top-12 week without a touchdown? Well, all respect to Dalton Schultz, but that’s what happens when you have one game over 80 yards and zero games over 80 yards without a touchdown. In fact, Schultz was incredibly boom-bust at tight end last season, notching three games outside the top-36 at tight end. This is the most by any player with at least 7 top-12 weeks and tied him with Pat Freiermuth, Zach Ertz (who changed teams mid-season), and Gerald Everett in this regard. So, what we saw was a player who tended to have big games when he scored touchdowns, but didn’t have the volume to be a consistent fantasy contributor… except he sort of did.
TE12 on the season, Kyle Pitts, averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game (PPR), so if you figure that we use that as a baseline for a top-12 TE week (since Dalton Schultz can’t help if Charlie Woerner or Jordan Akins have two touchdowns in a week, vaulting him into the top-ten), we see a different story. In 2021, Mark Andrews led the way in this regard, with six such games. Schultz tied for second, with Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Rob Gronkowski. But, we don’t get 2022 fantasy points for 2021 games, we can just use them as a nice baseline.
So, let’s think about this. Schultz ranked second in the NFL in top-12 TE weeks without a touchdown, and he still had the fifth-most touchdowns at the position (showing that upside exists either way), and he will be without Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup for part of the year. So, he has all the opportunity in the world to smash his production last season, probably because he’s already one of Dak Prescott’s favorite targets (he ranked sixth among TE with 104 targets, and third with 78 receptions).
So, there’s no area where Dalton Schultz is weak. With or without touchdowns, he’s turning in top-twelve weeks. To whit, he ranked third in top-12 TE games (10.5 or more PPR points) with 11 such games in 2021.
2022 Dalton Schultz Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Dalton Schultz is what I’m calling the Shelf Tight End this season. We have The Studs, who we lump into the top five. They’re Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, and George Kittle. Then, we have The Blob, which starts around T.J. Hockenson and runs through Cole Kmet or Albert Okwuegbunam, and are one mega-tier. Then, between the two, nestled on a little shelf all by himself, we have Dallas Goedert.
Goedert is the perfect mix of talent, opportunity, upside, and most importantly… price. Schultz is TE6, pick 56 overall, putting him toward the end of round five. If you want Schultz, you can virtually pencil him in with your fifth-round pick, since nobody really reaches for The Shelf. He’s not a stud, so he doesn’t have that sex appeal of a Darren Waller or Kyle Pitts. He also isn’t a member of The Blob, who people tend to get wild hairs about, and could potentially reach on them. He’s all by himself, with a nice value in the fifth round.
Things get better in snake drafts, where Schultz is $6.1. This is half as much as Kittle & Waller, $10 cheaper than Pitts, and over $20 cheaper than Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. If you want to avoid The Blob, but you also don’t want to pay up for a stud tight end, then Dalton Schultz is your man. You also have a ton of wiggle room between his average auction value and the stud tight end AAV, so you could chase him all the way to $10 and still get a deal.
Best Case Scenario:
Dalton Schultz and Dak Prescott continue their torrid love affair, and Schultz finishes as a top-three tight end, as he gets additional targets to compensate for losing Amari Cooper.
Worst Case Scenario:
Dalton Schultz, despite all indications to the contrary, belongs in The Blob. He finishes somewhere between TE7 and TE17.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: Dalton Schultz on Twitter]