It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today, we take a look at a fourth-round wide receiver who had himself a nice little rookie year. Well, half a rookie year. And look, the good players weren’t there! So targets are earned, but not his! At least that’s what his detractors say. Let’s take a look at Amon-Ra St. Brown with his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Amon-Ra St. Brown ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR26, 64 overall
Average Auction Value: $5.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Overview:
Amon-Ra St. Brown fell to the fourth round in the 2021 NFL Draft. Generally, wide receivers who fall to day three have about a 2% chance of finishing inside the top-36 in fantasy points in their position, at least based on historical data. Amon-Ra successfully pulled that off last season, finishing as WR26 in non-PPR, WR24 in half-PPR, and WR22 in full PPR.
“But!” the haters will say, “he didn’t do anything until both T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift were off the field!” Well, that’s sort of true, as he averaged 8 catches and a carry for 93 total yards when the Lions were without Swift and Hockenson. I said it was half true because that represented a three-game stint where he had neither Hockenson nor Swift. Swift returned after that three-game span, and Sun God has his two best games in the two last games of the year, averaging 8 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, with D’Andre Swift on the field.
What’s more likely come 2022, that the Lions go away from the one bright spot in their passing game in 2022 because he was too good of a value in the draft? Or that they realize that maybe St. Brown earned the rights to be the primary target, and not T.J. Hockenson. The “Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t even get targets!” crowd stares directly at two games where Jared Goff’s incompetence was on full display, where he had two games with zero targets and one target. Between those games, however, he had 8, 8, and 7 targets, all with Hockenson and Swift on the field. So sure, you can say that Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t earn targets until those other two players were gone. But, you’d be wrong. Sun God finished with the third-most targets and the third-most receptions among rookies last year, with higher yards per target than Jaylen Waddle, who will have to contend with Tyreek Hill this year. ARSB’s 119 targets are the ninth-most since 2010.
There’s no real reason to fade Amon-Ra St. Brown unless you really want to get mad that whatever model you built ignored fourth-round wide receivers and therefore you missed on Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s fine. After all, history shows us you had an over 98% chance of being correct. But, don’t punish 2022 Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2021 Amon-Ra St. Brown’s draft stock.
2022 Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
28 wide receivers had at least 110 targets last season, and only fourteen of them had higher yards per target than Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s above big hype monster names like D.K. Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen, who are all generally regarded to be top-fifteen wide receivers. He’s also playing in an offense that brought in wide receivers, but not wide receivers that are any sort of threat to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s role. They drafted incredible deep shot artist Jameson Williams, who might not even be ready until 2023 due to an ACL tear, as well as D.J. Chark, who is also a deep threat compared to Amon-Ra St. Brown’s role as a short to intermediate possession receiver. Now, you know Jared Goff. Tell me, is the possession receiver or the deep threat more likely to come through for 2022 fantasy football leagues?
So, if you want Amon-Ra St. Brown, go ahead and get him, especially in snake drafts. He’s WR27 in snake drafts, going in the sixth round. That’s a great value for Sun God. Unfortunately, salary cap drafts have a more head-scratching cost involved with ARSB. St. Brown goes in a range where you generally see a big salary drop-off (backend WR2). St. Brown has a chance to be one of those receivers, as his average auction value is just shy of $6. Unfortunately, one or two of these guys usually get a highly inflated draft price thanks to a bidding war. You can easily and happily spend up to $10 (5% of your budget) on Amon-Ra St. Brown, but downsides exist, so let’s not go crazy, here.
Best Case Scenario:
Amon-Ra St. Brown proved that the Lions should throw him the ball more than they throw the ball to T.J. Hockenson.
Worst Case Scenario:
Gorr the God Butcher made his way to the Egyptian Pantheon and we lose Amon-Ra St. Brown forever.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]