It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today, we take a look at a wide receiver who hasn’t had a good quarterback yet in his career, and who gave up on his last team in 2021. Can Allen Robinson bounce back? Is he a wasted pick at his ADP, or is he a major value? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Allen Robinson ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR27, 65 overall
Average Auction Value: $3.2
Allen Robinson Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Allen Robinson Fantasy Football Overview:
There are no two ways about it: Allen Robinson did not produce up-to-snuff last season. He missed five games in two different stints in the second half of the season, but even before missing that time, he only averaged 3.3 catches for 38 yards per game, on 5.6 targets per contest. Compare that to his 2020, where he finished with 9.4 targets, 6.4 receptions, and 78 yards per game.
You can think of this situation in one of two ways: the Bears and Allen Robinson were no longer a good match (and given the contentious contract negotiations that ended in him getting the franchise tag) or Allen Robinson is no longer good. I am going to go with the former, rather than the latter. And while it doesn’t bode well for A-Rob to just give up on the Bears, it does sort of make sense. They franchise tagged him, and then he ran just 24 routes per game. Per PlayerProfiler.com, he ran 38 per game in 2020, and 33 per game in 2021, both among the top ten at the position. So, they franchise tagged him then used him to block? If I was Allen Robinson, I would be mad too, especially given that he didn’t want to be there and they didn’t even use him to do what he does best.
So now he leaves Chicago, where he had his offense schemed up by Matt Nagy and executed by Justin Fields, and goes to Los Angeles to play football schemed up by Sean McVay and executed by Matthew Stafford. To say that it’s a bit of a glow-up in his situation is an understatement. Robert Woods and Odell Beckham, Jr. did not play one snap together, as Woods tore his ACL the day after the Rams traded for Beckham. If you combine their Rams stats, they come out to 117 targets, and 25 red zone targets. Those red zone targets would rank fifth, tied with Keenan Allen if they were rolled up in one person.
Now, obviously, he won’t step fully into that production, but he should get a massive chunk of it. If he just does what Beckham and Woods did with it, he would finish with 72 receptions and 861 yards. But, if he is still the Allen Robinson we know and love, that’s the floor.
2022 Allen Robinson Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
I love Allen Robinson at his price. Except for last season (where, again, the Bears refused to use him properly), he has at least 150 targets in every season where he’s played at least 14 games (2015, 2016, 2019, and 2020). 2015 was his high-water mark, as he notched 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. But, he wasn’t a slouch with those targets recently, either, averaging 100 catches and 1,200 yards (6.5 touchdowns) with that target volume in 2019 and 2020. Call this ADP in to talk to the Select Committee, because getting him as the WR28, behind guys who haven’t really shown that kind of upside (Rashod Bateman, Gabriel Davis, and Amon-Ra St. Brown) is a massive coup.
There’s some downside with the pick, sure, but it’s all baked into the price. Robinson was top-thirteen in 2019 and 2020 with absolute dreck at quarterback, gets Matthew Stafford, enough potential volume to make him throw up, and he’s going in the sixth round.
Best Case Scenario:
Allen Robinson is Odell Beckham on the Rams and Robert Woods pre-ACL in terms of opportunity, and he’s still 2020 Allen Robinson in talent.
Worst Case Scenario:
Allen Robinson is Odell Beckham on the Browns and Robert Woods post-ACL in terms of opportunity, and he’s still 2021 Allen Robinson in talent.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Photo Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Allen_Robinson.JPG under cc-2.0]