It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen are among the best QB/WR duos in the NFL, but Stefon Diggs took a step back from a productivity perspective last year. What happened, and can they overcome that set back to return to glory, and make a run at the Super Bowl? Let’s take a look in Stefon Diggs’ 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Stefon Diggs ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR5, 12 overall
Average Auction Value: $46.2
Stefon Diggs Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 164 | 103 | 1225 | 10 | 9.65 | 6.06 | 62.8% | 7.47 | 11.89 |
| 2020 | 16 | 15 | 166 | 127 | 1535 | 8 | 11.07 | 7.94 | 76.5% | 9.25 | 12.09 |
| 2019 | 15 | 15 | 94 | 63 | 1130 | 6 | 5.88 | 3.94 | 67.0% | 12.02 | 17.94 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 182.5 | 234.0 | 285.5 | 10.7 | 13.8 | 16.8 | 1.11 | 1.43 | 1.74 |
| 2020 | 201.6 | 265.1 | 328.6 | 12.6 | 16.6 | 20.5 | 1.21 | 1.60 | 1.98 |
| 2019 | 149.1 | 180.6 | 212.1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 1.59 | 1.92 | 2.26 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1841 | 11 | 326 | 1.99 | 3.17 | 35% | 27% |
| 2020 | 1700 | 10.12 | 477 | 2.84 | 3.76 | 37% | 30% |
| 2019 | 1424 | 15.1 | 302 | 3.21 | 4.79 | 41% | 21% |
2022 Stefon Diggs Fantasy Football Overview:
Stefon Diggs’ 2020 and 2021 are complete enigmas, when taken together. Nobody doubted Diggs’ ability in Minnesota, and when he came to Buffalo in 2020, Josh Allen completely unlocked him, to the tune of 166 targets, which he turned into 127 catches for 1,535 yards and 8 touchdowns. In 2021, however, he took a step back to just 103 catches for 1,225 yards, which still came with 10 touchdowns… on just two fewer targets.
If you take a look at his under-the-hood stats on PlayerProfiler.com, it comes down to one of the least sticky possible stats, because so much goes into it… unrealized air yards. Josh Allen threw Diggs 141 catchable balls in 2020, and 118 in 2021. That’s it, that’s the difference. This led to Diggs having 644 unrealized air yards to 923 unrealized air yards, while having a very similar average depth of target (10.3 yards downfield versus 11.1). This is pretty much the difference between his 2020 and his 2021: miscommunication with Josh Allen.
And the good news? Unrealized air yards for talented receivers with no other changes in their overall situation is one of the easiest ways to anticipate correction, and Stefon Diggs ranked second in the NFL in unrealized air yards. He’s a slam dunk WR1 who is going at a discount in drafts because he had a down year in 2021 with all the signs of a bounce back in the cards.
2022 Stefon Diggs Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Stefon Diggs Salary Cap Value: $45
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
Stefon Diggs feels like the forgotten man among the top-ten wide receivers this season. He doesn’t have WR1 upside, so he doesn’t fit with Cooper Kupp/Justin Jefferson/Ja’Marr Chase, and nothing changed about his situation, so he doesn’t fit with CeeDee Lamb/Deebo Samuel/Tyreek Hill/Davante Adams. He’s just sort of… there. He snuggles in right between those groups in salary cap drafts, going for $46. Honestly, I can’t get too mad at it. He feels like the last guy in that tier of wide receivers that you can add and not worry about what will happen, because he and Josh Allen are a well-oiled machine. Luckily, that means that his price likely won’t get driven up in salary cap drafts, because he’s not sexy as a pick. He’s just really good. And unsexy, really good players make for great values in salary cap drafts. In fact, you can get Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans for $106. None of those are sexy plays, but they’re more financially sound than getting Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, and a $1 wide receiver for the same price.
Best Case Scenario:
Stefon Diggs keeps his double-digit touchdown production from the 2021 season while adding in his 1,500 yards from the 2020 season, finishing as a top-two wide receiver.
Worst Case Scenario:
Josh Allen somehow literally turns into Kirk Cousins, and Stefon Diggs’ worst nightmare comes to fruition.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
