It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. With no Amari Cooper or Cedrick Wilson anymore, and with Michael Gallup likely starting the year on PUP, a lot sits on CeeDee Lamb’s svelte shoulders in the Dallas passing game. Can he shake off the inconsistencies that have plagued his career to become a WR1 for both Dak Prescott and fantasy football managers? Let’s take a look in his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
CeeDee Lamb ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR6, 15 overall
Average Auction Value: $41.4
CeeDee Lamb Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Overview:
The Cowboys traded Amari Cooper to the Browns, Michael Gallup tore his ACL, and just like that, CeeDee Lamb is the undisputed WR1 in Dallas. While I loved CeeDee Lamb coming out in the 2020 NFL Draft, he’s yet to show that he belongs in the discussion of top-flight receivers. He’s talented, yes, but he also has disappeared at times, In two seasons, Lamb has ten games over 80 yards and seven games under 40 yards. Of the games over 80 yards, he did it on fewer than seven targets once, and in the games under 40 yards, he had more than five targets just five times. By and large, when CeeDee Lamb gets the targets, he produces, but not consistently. He also fails to buttress his low-yardage games with touchdowns, as he has just 11 in two years.
But what about his game can shine through in 2022? In two years, Lamb had just one game without Amari, so that’s not really a dataset we can work with, but he has played eight games without Michael Gallup, which can help point us in the right direction. In the 24 games Lamb has played with Gallup, Lamb averages 13.9 PPR points on five catches, 61 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns per game. In the eight games without Gallup, those numbers go to 4.5 receptions per game, 71.6 yards, and… 0.4 touchdowns per game. Okay, it’s a lot of the same, just more yards and fewer catches. But at least his target share stayed about the same, from 19% to 20%!
All-in-all, CeeDee Lamb’s ranking is based on projections, and I don’t just mean statting out what we think might happen in 2022. There isn’t really any sustained success for Lamb in his first two years, and we are hoping that a third-year breakout can carry the day for him.
2022 CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
That having been said, if you want to spend $41 at a salary cap draft on CeeDee Lamb, stop, save your money, and spend $28 on Keenan Allen or $31 on Mike Evans, and save the cash for two guys who are more likely to finish as top-12 wide receivers. But, I’m not saying to be out on Lamb, just that I’m out on Lamb as a value at $41. If you can sneak one past the goalie for between $35 and $40, I would be happy with Lamb as my WR1. I would just need to make sure I get solid WR2 and WR3; no taking chances on the Broncos guys or Seahawks guys, for example.
Snake drafts, shockingly, have it a bit more correct with Lamb, where he’s WR7 and a mid-second-round pick. I still don’t love that value (I’d prefer him 8-10 picks later), but if he slips, he’s a slam dunk receiver to take there. I would still prefer to take Mike Evans and Keenan Allen in that situation, but if you really believe in CeeDee Lamb, then go for it. I just think that his upside is priced into his draft slot, but his downside most certainly is not.
Best Case Scenario:
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb hit the ground running, smoothing out all the wrinkles in their games and allowing Lamb to finish as a top-five wide receiver.
Worst Case Scenario:
Lamb’s inconsistencies continue to rear their ugly head, and he finishes outside the top-12 at wide receiver. To hedge against this case, draft Jalen Tolbert 205 picks later.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/CeeDee_Lamb_Cowboys.jpg]