It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. And, well, it happened. Derek Carr and Davante Adams can finally stop staring at each other across the NFL like Mac and Charlie staring at each other from across the restaurant in It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. The Raiders traded for Adams, pairing Carr with his college wide receiver once again, and hoping Carr and the rest of the team can move on from the cataclysmic 2021 season. But, that might be easier said than done, as Davante Adams was part of the AFC West arms race this season that included names like Adams, Russell Wilson, Khalil Mack, and… Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Anyway, what can we expect from Derek Carr in 2022 fantasy football leagues?
Derek Carr ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB15, 108 overall
Average Auction Value: $3.4
Derek Carr Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Att | Comp | Comp% | Yds | TD | Int | Comp/G | Att/G | Yds/G | TD/G | INT/G |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 428 | 626 | 68.4% | 4804 | 23 | 14 | 25.2 | 36.8 | 282.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 2020 | 16 | 16 | 517 | 348 | 67.3% | 4103 | 27 | 9 | 32.3 | 21.8 | 256.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 513 | 361 | 70.4% | 4054 | 21 | 8 | 32.1 | 22.6 | 253.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Year | 4 PPTD | 6 PPTD | 4 PPTD/G | 6 PPTD/G | Year | Att | Yd | TD | YPC | Att/G | Yd/G | |
| 2021 | 257 | 303 | 15.1 | 17.82 | 2021 | 40 | 108 | 0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 6.4 | |
| 2020 | 272.1 | 326.1 | 17.0 | 20.38 | 2020 | 39 | 140 | 3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 8.8 | |
| 2019 | 244.4 | 286.4 | 15.3 | 17.90 | 2019 | 27 | 82 | 2 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | aDOT+ | Y/A | TD% | INT% | Sacks | Yds/Sack |
| 2021 | 5089 | 8.13 | 8.13 | 7.70 | 5.4% | 3.3% | 40 | 6.03 |
| 2020 | 4132 | 7.98 | 0.25 | 7.94 | 5.2% | 1.7% | 26 | 5.77 |
| 2019 | 3335 | 6.50 | -1.68 | 7.90 | 4.1% | 1.6% | 29 | 6.34 |
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season. Air yards data is from FTNFantasy.com/air-yards
2022 Derek Carr Fantasy Football Overview:
Derek Carr is sneakily better than you think as a fantasy football quarterback. While he lacks the upside of a lot of the guys at the position, he is essentially the ideal budget QB2 in 2QB and Superflex leagues. While his natural mascara makes his eyes really pop, his numbers don’t, so people sort of forget about Derek Carr. He ended 2022 fifth in passing yards, and thirteenth in touchdowns. While the touchdowns are fluky and not that impressive, Carr ranked top-fifteen in passing yards for the seventh-straight season in 2022 while notching his third consecutive season in the top-ten in yards per attempt. And because of that, along with the addition of Davante Adams, I like Derek Carr as a budget QB1 in one quarterback leagues and as the ideal QB2 in 2QB or Superflex leagues.
Carr has finished as a QB1 or QB2 over 80% of the time in his last three seasons, equally distributing his QB1 and QB2 finishes (20 starts each over the last three seasons) en route to being a guy you’re never really mad at having on your roster. But at the same time, he has just one top-five game on his résumé in that timeframe, making him a little underwhelming for someone you hope to have tremendous upside. That’s just not Carr’s game. He, alongside Kirk Cousins, are the new Philip Rivers & Ben Roethlisberger: guys who are annually underrated who do nothing but perform solidly at the top end of QB2 ranks. To whit, Derek Carr has been QB13 (the #1 QB2) in each of the last two seasons.
But now, things might just be changing. Derek Carr gets Davante Adams, to go alongside breakout wide receiver Hunter Renfrow and star (if oft-injured) tight end Darren Waller. He has a potent trio of weapons at his disposal, and this isn’t a situation where Aaron Rodgers made Davante Adams. In nine games without Rodgers, Davante Adams averaged 16.1 PPR points (16.6 with Rodgers) on 9.7 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 66.1 yards per game. Adams will undoubtedly help Derek Carr this season.
2022 Derek Carr Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Derek Carr Auction Value: $4
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
That’s why Derek Carr is the perfect “wait until you can’t wait anymore” quarterback if you want a guy who will just solidly slide into acceptable (and often top-ten) production without breaking the bank. Carr is $1.5 in salary cap drafts, which essentially means either the guy who nominates him gets Carr, or someone bids $2 and the other person doesn’t want to go $3. If you go $3, you can get Carr. You’d be better off not breaking the bank, however, and just waiting until everyone has their QB slots filled and try to sneak Carr in for a buck. If you miss on him, just get Kirk Cousins, instead.
In snake drafts, you can wait, and wait, and wait, and get Derek Carr if you want to have him as your solidly unspectacular but perfectly useful quarterback for bargain basement prices. Carr is QB16 right now, going at pick 121 overall, meaning you can snag him in the tenth round if you want to make sure that you get him. He’s three picks after Kirk Cousins, and seven picks after Trey Lance, so maybe use the Lance pick as your sign that you should go get Carr.
Best Case Scenario:
It turns out that Davante Adams has been scaffolding to a slow Aaron Rodgers collapse, and him taking his talents to Vegas will vault Derek Carr to new heights. Carr sets new personal records and he sets the league on fire. For fantasy, he ends firmly as QB13 to finish the year.
Worst Case Scenario:
Davante Adams, just before the first game in the NFL season, takes in a Vegas show. Through a series of events that include absinthe and multiple pygmy tigers and a meat suit, he ends up in a Vegas residency opening for Lady Gaga. Derek Carr loses his big new shiny weapon and retreats back to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, causing him to finish as QB13.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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