It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. The 49ers spent three first-round picks on Trey Lance last season, and that is exactly the number of games that he got any significant run in. Did we see enough to feel good about Trey Lance going into 2022 fantasy football leagues?
Trey Lance ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB13, 102 overall
Average Auction Value: $1.9
Trey Lance Statistics:
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Att||Yd||TD||YPC||Att/G||Yd/G|
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season. Air yards data is from FTNFantasy.com/air-yards
2022 Trey Lance Fantasy Football Overview:
In a fantasy football atmosphere where we squint and tilt our heads and try to talk ourselves into Daniel Jones, there’s no real reason to not like Trey Lance. Lance is getting a steep discount in fantasy drafts because of nationally created buzz that indicates that Jimmy Garoppolo might be the quarterback next year. It’s bupkis. Don’t listen to it; the Garoppolo market is cold because nobody wants to trade for a QB with an injured shoulder. Once Garoppolo is healthy, Lance will be the undisputed starting quarterback in San Francisco.
And with that undisputed starting quarterback role comes fantasy football upside that few else in the NFL can boast. Trey Lance played 2.5 halves last season, and if you turn that half a game and pro-rate it into a full four quarters, Lance averaged 252 passing yards, 67 rushing yards, and two touchdowns per game. That comes out to 24.8 fantasy points per game; Josh Allen led the league at 24.2 fantasy points per game last year. While I doubt that little bit of mathematical Cirque de Soleil holds up to any sort of scrutiny (or the stark light of day), it does show that Lance has the chops to make it as a fantasy football commodity next year. Even if he doesn’t reach that upside, the opinion of him in the fantasy football community is soured by the uncertainty around him his freshman year, a year where the 49ers said he wasn’t going to play. People are already throwing around the B-word (bust), and that’s about as ridiculous as they come. He’s a solid QB1 option for dirt cheap.
2022 Trey Lance Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Trey Lance at QB14 (113 overall) is an absolute steal, and Trey Lance for $2 ($1.6 average price) is an even bigger steal. The only reason Trey Lance’s prices are so low is the extended uncertainty surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo. Let me be absolutely clear if I wasn’t above: Trey Lance, barring injury, is starting seventeen games for the 49ers next year. No Jimmy G starts, no Brock Purdy starts. Nothing. It’s going to be the Trey Lance Show, and because of the massive national narratives surrounding the 49ers “not feeling good” about Lance and that’s why they still have Garoppolo around, it creates a buying opportunity.
Remember, before you decide to base your draft strategy and evaluation around national reports surrounding the 49ers and how they feel about Trey Lance… those same characters were telling us all last offseason that the 49ers were drafting Mac Jones. How did that go, again?
Best Case Scenario:
Trey Lance puts it all together and is the fantasy football QB1, thanks to a Shanahan offense that learned a thing or two after getting Robert Griffin III killed.
Worst Case Scenario:
Jimmy Garoppolo just refuses to leave the 49ers. He refuses to leave the huddle and demands to be the quarterback on every play. He gets hauled off by security screaming something about squatter’s rights, admiralty law, and gold fringes on the flags flown at Levi’s Stadium.
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