It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. We start with literally the last AFC quarterback any of us saw play, as Joe Burrow and the Bengals represented the AFC in the Super Bowl last year. Burrow played decently enough in the playoffs, but his torrid down-the-stretch play has fantasy football managers diving in on Joe Burrow with both feet. Should they be more cautious?
Joe Burrow ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB5, 52 overall
Average Auction Value: $8.5
Joe Burrow Statistics:
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Att||Yd||TD||YPC||Att/G||Yd/G|
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season. Air yards data is from FTNFantasy.com/air-yards
2022 Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Overview:
First of all, I think Joe Burrow is an incredible real-life quarterback with a ton of weapons all around him that will help pick him up when he isn’t having the best game and will help elevate him to incredible heights when everything is clicking. Unfortunately, I think that fantasy football managers are taking this whole deal just a bit too far. Burrow had a hot start to 2021, averaging 277 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 1.1 picks per game (with just 5.4 rushing yards per contest) before dipping back down to earth and averaging just 238 passing yards, one touchdown, and 0.8 picks for the next six contests. He finished 2021 en fuego, passing for 971 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last two games of 2021.
That’s the Joe Burrow that many remember, the guy who averaged 485 passing yards and 4 touchdowns across two games in their fantasy playoffs. He was a great pickup for those who were ballsy enough to start him… against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL at that point. The Chiefs and the Ravens, according to FFToday.com, allowed the second and third most points to quarterbacks last season, respectively. Granted, Joe Burrow played a part in that but one spike week per team isn’t going to push them into the top three if they didn’t belong in the top five. Still, I think Joe Burrow has it in him to end the year as a top-ten quarterback that’s not the problem. It’s where people are taking him that I take umbrage with…
2022 Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
By snake draft ADP, per FantasyPros, Joe Burrow is QB5 off the board, pick 52 overall. According to Yahoo! average auction value prices, he is the fifth-priciest quarterback, ahead of Kyler Murray, Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts, and behind Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson. That’s where my problem lies. Yes, he has a spike week upside. But those two games against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL were two of his three top-five games last season. And now hes’ a top-five quarterback. I understand that the Bengals upgraded his offensive line, and he gets a full offseason of work with his full bevy of receivers.
But he’s going at his ceiling. Over the last three seasons, the QB5 each year averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game. Burrow has six games of at least 22.4 fantasy points in his career thus far. It doesn’t bode well for him to return his price, probably because he doesn’t run. Right now, he averages 35 fantasy points from rushing over the course of a year, to reach QB5 numbers, he needs 345.8 fantasy points from passing over the course of the season, which means he needs to average over 300 yards and two touchdowns per game, without interceptions, to return this price. That’s too rich for my blood.
Best Case Scenario:
Joe Burrow averages over 300 yards and two touchdowns per game, without interceptions, and returns his price.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Bengals get back to their franchise roots as lovable losers. Ja’Marr Chase retires, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon stage a palace coup against Joe Burrow and they install Tyler Boyd as the new quarterback.
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