It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. We start off at the top with Josh Allen, who has been the QB1 in each of the last two seasons? Can he make it three-for-three?
Josh Allen ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB1, Pick 23 overall
Average Auction Value: $35.5
Josh Allen Statistics:
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Att||Yd||TD||YPC||Att/G||Yd/G|
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season. Air yards data is from FTNFantasy.com/air-yards
2022 Josh Allen Fantasy Football Overview:
It was just a short two years ago that we were asking ourselves if anyone would ever dethrone Patrick Mahomes as the no-doubt fantasy football QB1. Fast forward two seasons, and Josh Allen has held the spot both times, dethroning Mahomes for that spot. Unlike Mahomes, Josh Allen is ascendant, with the Bills continuing to add talent around him during his rookie deal. One of the reasons for Josh Allen’s continued success? He leads the league in fantasy points through yardage over the last two seasons, which is a remarkably consistent floor to maintain on a weekly basis.
This has worked out for Allen, as he is a top-12 QB in 63% of his games over the last two seasons, and top-5 49% of the time. Josh Allen is a no-doubt top-five option just about half the time, which leads quarterbacks in the same timeframe. Equally helpful? He hasn’t finished outside the top 24 in a week in the last two seasons, which keeps him from bottoming out and destroying your week.
2022 Josh Allen Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
In 2QB and Superflex leagues, take Josh Allen as soon as humanly possible. He’s the no-doubt #1 pick in the land in that format. In 1QB leagues, Josh Allen goes off the board at pick 23 on average. If you want to get Josh Allen onto your roster, I’ve seen worse prices for the top QB on the board. Personally, I’d much rather have him at that slot than Patrick Mahomes 9 spots later, but if I want a top-flight QB, I’m waiting around for Justin Herbert at pick 39. And if he isn’t available there, just wait for Jalen Hurts.
In Salary Cap drafts, Josh Allen represents about 18% of your salary cap, and I can’t see myself paying that price when Mahomes/Herbert/Jackson all go for between $13 and $14. He’s completely hands-off for me because I can get Herbert, A.J. Dillon ($10) and Mike Williams ($4), and Darren Waller ($11) or I can get Josh Allen and a $1 RB, WR, and TE.
Best Case Scenario:
He picks up exactly where he left off, as the undisputed QB1 in the land. He finally breaks double-digit rushing touchdowns and 40 passing touchdowns, while topping 4,500 yards for the second time in three years.
Worst Case Scenario:
Losing Brian Daboll, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders do more damage than we anticipate. The offense gets wobbly as their replacements (Jamison Crowder and Gabriel Davis) don’t help Allen as much as we would have hoped. He fails as hard as he possibly can, and finishes as QB3.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
If you would like our $7 Draft Kit, then follow this link!
For more analysis like these player profiles, check out these links!
(Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Josh_Allen_%2843569465444%29.jpg/800px-Josh_Allen_%2843569465444%29.jpg under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)