It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. Today we take a look at Justin Herbert, who has had one of the best starts for any quarterback, ever. Can he keep it rolling in year three and take his spot atop the fantasy football quarterback ranks in his third year, matching the man he is chasing, Josh Allen?
Justin Herbert ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB3, Pick 36 overall
Average Auction Value: $15.2
Justin Herbert Statistics:
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Att||Yd||TD||YPC||Att/G||Yd/G|
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season. Air yards data is from FTNFantasy.com/air-yards. The remainder of the statistics are per Pro-Football-Reference.com
2022 Justin Herbert Fantasy Football Overview:
Justin Herbert is off to one of the best quarterback starts in NFL history, at least through his first two years in the league. If you go by Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Approximate Value, he is the fourth-most valuable quarterback through his first two seasons, behind Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson. If those names pique your interest, they should. They’ve all been slam dunk top-five fantasy football quarterbacks at some point in their respective careers.
Justin Herbert is one of two quarterbacks to total over 70 touchdowns in his first two seasons, joining Dan Marino in that regard. He also leads the way for passing yardage in the first two years of his career, with 9,350 passing yards in his first two seasons, over 1,100 passing yards more than the #2 quarterback, Andrew Luck. So, if you want to know why I’m bullish on Justin Herbert, that’s why. He’s in rarified air in terms of all-time quarterback play. He also returns his top-three passing options with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler returning to L.A. The Chargers also upgraded his fourth option, swapping out Jared Cook for Gerald Everett.
So, I have Justin Herbert with the consensus as my #2 quarterback this season. He has tremendous upside that very few have shown in the NFL. As he returns his entire passing attack, he gets the nod over Patrick Mahomes at the #2 slot.
2022 Justin Herbert Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Justin Herbert is at the high-end of the players I like thanks to their mix of value and projected upside. I have Herbert as my QB2, and he regularly goes as the third quarterback off of the board in snake drafts, around pick 39. This is likely where I will dive into quarterback this year (and if I miss, my fallbacks are Lamar Jackson at 53 and Jalen Hurts at 73). We are past the days where we wait and wait on a quarterback, and we go out and get a good one if we want to compete. Herbert has the 5,000 passing yards, 50 passing touchdowns upside that very few quarterbacks in this league possess, plus he’s on the way up.
In salary cap drafts, Herbert is about $13-$14. This is an insanely cheap investment in an upside quarterback, and you would be well-served to try to get one of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes off the board first. Don’t overpay for Herbert as long as at least one of those guys remains on the board, but I would pay up to $18 for Herbert to ensure I have him on my roster this year.
Best Case Scenario:
Justin Herbert hits his 5,000 pass yard, 50 passing touchdown upside, and finishes as the QB1 on the year, passing Josh Allen and putting himself in the QB1 conversation for years to come.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Los Angeles Chargers coaching staff “pulls a Tyrod” on Justin Herbert, paving the way for Easton Stick SZN in L.A.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.