It’s week thirteen and it is time to look at the trash heap that is tight ends. I don’t know why the tight end on your roster is doing terribly. Maybe he has Covid? Maybe he has nagging injuries. Or maybe it is because he isn’t Travis Kelce. For those of us who don’t have Kelce on our rosters, we need to find ways to make do. This week, we will be asking if you should start or sit Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, or Eric Ebron.
Start or Sit Mike Gesicki versus Cincinnati Bengals
In a lot of ways, the question about whether to start or sit Mike Gesicki isn’t a question about Gesicki. Rather, the question is who will be the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins this week.
For the most part, the numbers between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa are very similar when it comes to how they use tight ends in their offense. They both throw to tight ends about 25% of the time. When they throw to tight ends, they both favor Mike Gesicki about 67% of the time.
The difference is that Fitzmagic averages 34 passing attempts per game, compared to Tua’s 24. Add to that the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is completing 68.5% of his passes, whereas Tua Tagovailoa is only completing 61.9% of his passes, and it feels like Fitzmagic is the quarterback you should root for to start.
Having said all that, you still want to start Mike Gesicki, regardless of who starts. The Cincinnati Bengals have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The match-up is too good. However, Gesicki’s ceiling is limited with Tua starting at quarterback. If you have a stronger option in week thirteen and Tua gets the start, I’d consider rolling with that. If Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start, there are very few tight ends I’d take over Mike Gesicki in week thirteen.
Start or Sit Dallas Goedert versus Green Bay Packers
Over the last couple of days, Dallas Goedert’s ECR has dropped. I assume this has to do with the return of Zack Ertz. With Ertz returning from IR, the fear is that Dallas Goedert will see a drop in target share. At least, this is what you fear if you don’t actually pay attention to football.
The truth of the matter is that before Dallas Goedert got hurt, he was averaging 9 targets and 6 receptions a game. Goedert was doing this with a healthy Zach Ertz on the field. The Eagles had been slowly phasing Ertz away from being the focal point of their offense and shifting that onus onto Dallas Goedert.
Let’s be real. Over his last two games, Dallas Goedert has been averaging 8 targets, 6 receptions, 76 yards, and 1 touchdown a game. In both of those games, Dallas Goedert was the Eagles’ number one receiver. There are two reasons Goedert isn’t a top-three overall fantasy tight end this year – his injury and Carson Wentz. Even despite Wentz, you want to start Dallas Goedert.
Start or Sit Eric Ebron versus WTF
While Dallas Goedert has seen his ECR drop in week thirteen, Eric Ebron has seen his ranking move up two spots. FantasyPro’s consensus has him as a top ten fantasy start for week thirteen and I can understand why they feel this way.
Washington has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. On the flip side of that, their defense is middle of the pack when it comes to defending tight ends. It stands to reason that Ebron will be a major focal point for Pittsburgh in week thirteen.
In the words of Han Solo, I got a bad feeling about this. The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a Wednesday game to play on Monday night. It feels like their entire schedule has been thrown off. Washington, on the other hand, is coming off an extended week of rest. Over the last four weeks, they haven’t really played anyone who can apply pressure to the quarterback, save a Baltimore team that was half-dead of Covid. This feels like a trap game to me and I would sit Eric Ebron.
Who to Prioritize?
Now that we have the players, we need to figure out how to rank them. To me, this is pretty cut and dry. While Eric Ebron is considered a good start by most experts in week thirteen, I want no parts of him. Now it comes down to Mike Gesicki and Dallas Goedert. Frankly, I am not worried about Zack Ertz taking away targets from Dallas Goedert. When healthy, Goedert has been the number one focus of the Eagles offense, and in true Eagles form, I expect them to be getting a lot of garbage-time fantasy points. After Goedert, Mike Gesicki has one of his best match-ups of the season. If you’ve held onto Gesicki this long, you’d be foolish not to start him in week thirteen.
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