Let’s start by reviewing how I did last week. I have not been looking forward to this, but now it’s going to happen. Right after the end of this sentence that I can’t seem to stop typing for some reason, so it’s just going on and on and on and on.
Arg, time to rip the bandaid off!
Start Zack Wilson:
Projected QB Rank: 36
Actual Finish: QB9
That’s a hit! Oddly enough, my highly suspect decision to recommend the terrible Zack Wilson last week was one of my only correct calls.
Sit Trevor Lawrence
Projected QB Rank: 9
Actual Finish: QB5
Trevor Lawrence did well in the Jags surprising upset of the Dallas Cowboys. I did not see that coming.
Start Gus Edwards
Projected RB Rank: 37
Actual Finish: RB44
My estimation of how Baltimore’s offense would handle Cleveland’s suspect run defense was off. I did not expect Baltimore to let a clearly foggy-headed Tyler Huntley throw so much (or run out of the pocket and run out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage without throwing it away, UGH!)
Sit Bam Knight
Projected RB Rank: 19
Actual Finish: RB58
This one worked out quite well. The Lions’ improved run defense and a game script that would see the Jets throwing a lot proved to be fantasy poison for Bam Knight.
Start Chris Moore
Projected WR Rank: 49
Actual Finish: WR53
Moore got targets early, which had me excited. But his usage dried up like Lake Mead as the game went on. This week he gets the Titans who allow the most points to WRs, but a lingering foot injury makes starting him sketchy.
Sit Amari Cooper
Projected WR Rank: 23
Actual Finish: WR44
I guess I didn’t do as badly as I thought, this week. Like Matthew Berry once said, it’s far easier to predict busts than breakouts.
Start Hunter Henry
Projected TE Rank: 15
Actual Finish: TE44
I did not expect the horrible Raiders secondary to limit Mac Jones to 112 passing yards the week after making Baker Mayfield look like a competent QB. I’m okay with this.
Sit Evan Engram
Projected TE Rank: 8
Actual Finish: TE12
Eh, I’ll call this a draw. Yes he technically finished as a TE1, but my advice was to pick a blob TE over him. 6 of the 11 tight ends who scored higher than him, last week, are less than 25 % rostered.
On to week 16:
Week 16 Start or Sit Quarterbacks
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: QB9
Last week’s loss to the Jags was the first time Prescott topped 20 fantasy points since before Thanksgiving. It’s not like he’s had highs to offset these lows: Prescott’s best line this season was a 2-250-1 outing against the ailing Bears. He’s not playing the Bears this week, he gets the top-ranked Eagles. Philly has been top ten in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past six weeks. But this is a bloody, knockdown NFC East matchup in late December. The Eagles could just twist the screws and clamp down on Dak. As I said, the upside just isn’t there to justify the risk, so sit Dak Prescott in week 16.
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: QB15
On the other side of this game, we have the van-living, 1970s-moustache-grooming Gardner Minshew. The Eagles are set up for a talented backup to take the reins and have a great game. That’s kind of how the Eagles are, philosophically: Remember when Nick Foles stepped up and led them on a Superbowl run? Dallas hasn’t been spectacular against the pass, lately. I strongly feel Minshew slides into the captain’s chair with ease. That’s why I’m making him my Millionaire Challenge bet in our Discord, and why I’m going to start Gardner Minshew in week 16.
Week 16 Start or Sit Running Backs
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: RB29
Pigs are flying: Swift is not on the injury report this week! The last time that happened, he put up a top 5 fantasy performance. The Lions go against a Panthers team that is surging, but in an NFC-South kind of way. The last team with a good set of running backs to face Carolina was Baltimore: The Ravens made a game plan that saw 1 out of every 4 passes going to a running back. I expect Detroit to utilize a similar game plan tool, which is why I want to start D’Andre Swift in week 16 and expect a top-20 performance from him.
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: RB21
I’m going to be honest: It was really hard finding an RB sit this week. All of the potential candidates either have great matchups (Pacheco, I’m looking at you) or are poised to get enough volume for a decent RB2 statline. So, I’m going with the guy who is most likely to see a possible volume decrease and plays a middle-of-the-road rushing defense. I think this is the week Elliott’s seven-game touchdown streak comes to an end. If it does, he might have trouble taking fantasy managers to the next round of the playoffs, so sit Ezekiel Elliott in week 16..
Week 16 Start or Sit Wide Receivers
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: WR30
Atlanta travels to Baltimore this week to fight a Ravens secondary that is stupid good at allowing ridiculous passing plays. This is just what QB Desmond Ridder needs to shake off the green. Ridder looooves throwing it to Drake London, doing so on nearly half of all of his passes. There’s no reason to shake this up against a Baltimore team that is decent at holding opponents to low scores, but allows big plays in the secondary, so start Drake London in week 16.
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: WR17
Watson has undoubtedly proven he is a scoring threat and a red zone target. However, I don’t think this rookie has developed the goods to get past Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou on the Dolphins. Aaron Rodgers has shown he will get it to the open wide receiver, no matter who it is, and I think he looks past Watson this week to his next available read. WR17 seems way too high for me, so I say sit Christian Watson in week 16.
Week 16 Start or Sit Tight Ends
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: TE12
Njoku has been looking like the player he was drafted to be, lately: He is the seventh-highest fantasy-scoring tight end in the league. However, this week, he won’t be any better than most of the Tight End Blob. Njoku faces a Saints defense that is all-world stingy to tight ends in fantasy. Sit David Njoku in week 16, because of this one special matchup.
FantasyPros Week 16 Rank: TE16
Juwan Johnson might just be the next tight end to make the leap into “elite” status. He’s that good. That he’s ranked outside the top 15 is criminal: He was the second-highest-scoring tight end, last week, for goodness’ sake! The Browns’ defense is good, but can be beaten. Start Juwan Johnson in week 16 with extreme confidence.
That’s it for this week’s start-or-sits. For all your last minute questions, check out me and former start-or-sit author Jeff Krisko on our Start or Sitshow Twitch stream, Sunday mornings ~90 minutes before the opening kickoffs. As always, I wish you the best in your matchups and hope to see you back, next week!