It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the tight ends. Today, we take a look at the forgotten man in the Washington Commanders’ pass-catcher corps. While everyone is getting all hot and bothered about a John Bates breakout campaign, could Logan Thomas stymie their dreams? Let’s take a look with his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Logan Thomas ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: TE26, 173 overall
Average Auction Value: $1.1
Logan Thomas Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Logan Thomas Overview:
I mean, what can you say about Logan Thomas? Wait, that’s not a rhetorical question. I’m literally asking you, what can you say about Logan Thomas? Can you speak to him, at all? The world’s least covered tight end was TE7 by ADP last year after a massively consistent 2020 campaign. Then, the converted quarterback had himself an injury-riddled 2021 season, and we’ve all set him aside.
But, should we be so quick to turn Logan Thomas into a guy that we take as a fallback TE2 or TE3? Well, I don’t think so. He was still the same guy he was in 2020, in 2021. In 2020, he was one of two tight ends with at least four targets in every game of the year (no TE had 5+ targets in every game of the year), and his consistent target volume is what his calling card should have been in 2021, and it was. If you exclude the game where he played 8% of snaps and left with an injury after 2 targets, Logan Thomas had 3, 7, 4, 6, and 5 targets. That comes out to 5 targets per game, or 85 over the course of the entire season.
And therein lies the rub. While his consistency is impressive, it’s the upside that we want, and he will struggle to crack back into the top seven getting 85 targets on the season. TE15, Tyler Higbee, had 85 targets last year, on a much more potent offense. But, Logan Thomas still produced. Why? Because five of his 25 targets came in the red zone, and three of those ended in touchdowns. Because of these targets, Logan Thomas’ end-of-season rank was buoyed up to TE8 in fantasy points per game.
All-in-all, Logan Thomas was pretty-good-but-not-hurt in 2020, where his 11 fantasy points per game allowed him to finish as TE5. Then, in 2021, he was pretty-good-but-pretty-hurt, where his 8.9 fantasy points per game allowed him to be TE8 in per-game stats, but TE45 overall. His upside at this point is a solid backend TE1, assuming everything stays the same.
2022 Logan Thomas Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Logan Thomas is a forgotten man in fantasy football drafts, going for $1 in 31% of salary cap drafts. I mean, sure. Nobody will argue with you if you really want to get Logan Thomas on your roster there. He’s even more forgotten in snake drafts, as TE26, going well outside the normal draftable range for even twelve-team leagues. I mean, sure, if you really want to get Logan Thomas on your roster there.
There’s not really a case to draft Logan Thomas, but there is a case to roster Logan Thomas if that makes sense. Given where he’s going, his upside is a solid backend TE1, assuming that everything stays the same and his razor-thin margins based on red zone targets sustain. Unfortunately, that could all fall apart as the Commanders, with Carson Wentz, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson, try to get more vertical. This would leave Logan Thomas in the dust.
Unless they really want Logan Thomas to be the release valve. After all, Carson Wentz spent years with Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz as his favorite weapons, so maybe it could be Logan Thomas? None of that is compelling enough to me to draft Logan Thomas, but I’ll definitely keep an eye on that target volume to start the year.
Best Case Scenario:
Logan Thomas’ 2020.
Worst Case Scenario:
Logan Thomas’ 2021.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/WFT_TE_Logan_Thomas.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]