It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the tight ends. Today, we take a look at a tight end who has been on a team with perennial top-twelve tight end Zach Ertz. The Cardinals traded for Ertz partway through the season, greasing the skids for a big 2022 for Goedert. But, another trade might throw a wrench in the works, as the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown during the 2022 NFL Draft. So, what can we expect from Dallas Goedert in 2022 fantasy football drafts?
Dallas Goedert ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: TE8, 75 overall
Average Auction Value: $2.6
Dallas Goedert Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Gallas Goedert Overview:
Last year, we saw Dallas Goedert finally break free from Zach Ertz’s shackles. For years, we lamented their inclusion on the same team and said that Ertz was limiting Goedert’s upside. It turns out that we were right. From 2018 through 2020, Ertz played 37 games with Zach Ertz, and 5 games without him. In the five games without Ertz, he averaged 20 more yards, an extra catch, and 2.2 more targets per game. In 2019 and 2020 (after his rookie campaign), Goedert averaged 9.8 PPR points per game with Ertz, and 11.9 PPR points without him.
It turns out that this was a preview of Goedert’s 2021 breakout campaign without Ertz, almost exactly. Thanks to a midseason trade, the fantasy football gods finally separated Ertz and Goedert, and Goedert broke free, averaging 9.7 PPR points in the five games without Ertz, and 11.6 PPR points in the games without Ertz, on… about an extra catch for 20 yards, with 2 extra targets per game. So, all of our prognosticating about players and splits and on/off stats turned out to be spot on once the Eagles freed Goedert from Zach Ertz.
So, I think it’s pretty safe to assume that we can expect about 12 PPR points from Goedert this season, even with A.J. Brown on board. Goedert is one of the three best players on the offense and works in a different area of the field than A.J. Brown, who has an aDOT of 11, whereas Goedert’s is short of the sticks. DeVonta Smith is the deep threat of the three, so his targets shouldn’t matter much to Ertz, either. So, I’m not worried about A.J. Brown stealing anything from Goedert. There’s a tight end role in this offense, and Goedert will fill it admirably.
2022 Dallas Goedert Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Dallas Goedert is firmly part of The Blob and represents a good intersection of price and upside that you can justify taking him as your one and only Blob TE. He’s currently TE8 off the board, pick 74 overall. Personally, I would pair him with another Blob TE, just in case. For example, Zach Ertz goes 19 picks later, and Mike Gesicki goes 33 picks later. If you get two of these guys, you get an extra chance at a top-six tight end season while insulating yourself from the risky downside of having to go to the waiver wire for Gerald Everett out of desperation.
Best Case Scenario:
Dallas Goedert continues cooking with Jalen Hurts and finishes as TE5 on the season thanks to a touchdown outburst.
Worst Case Scenario:
Dallas Goedert never returns to form with Jalen Hurts, and finishes as TE15 on the season thanks to an addiction to Starburst.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dallas_Goedert_TD_catch.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]