It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the tight ends. Today, we take a look at Cole Kmet, who should take a massive step forward in 2022. What should expect from the third-year tight end in a completely barren Chicago Bears skill position group? Let’s take a look in his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Cole Kmet ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: TE14, 130 overall
Average Auction Value: $1.1
Cole Kmet Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Cole Kmet Fantasy Football Overview:
While Kmet made everyone all hot and bothered last season, he failed to come through for fantasy football production in any meaningful way, finishing as TE21 on the season with just three top-twelve games under his belt in PPR. He came awfully close six times, but ultimately, he fell short thanks to the efforts of the Chicago Bears offense. Or rather, their lack of substantive efforts. Kmet finished with 60 catches, 612 yards, and zero touchdowns. While everyone is getting hot and bothered about Kyle Pitts having 17 more targets and just one touchdown, you have to consider that a tight end usually gets a touchdown about every 15 targets. That means that the Bears left about six touchdowns on the field for Cole Kmet. If he had gotten those extra 48 fantasy points, he would have finished with 9.95 fantasy points per game, just ahead of TE14, Noah Fant.
So, you can see that even if the Chicago Bears had a functional offense, then Cole Kmet wasn’t going to make it into the top twelve last season. But, what about this year? The Bears shed Allen Robinson, Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd, Damien Williams and Jimmy Graham. They replaced Goodwin and Byrd with a mishmash of not-so-great wide receivers like Velus Jones, N’Keal Harry, and Byron Pringle. You might think that losing guys like Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd aren’t relevant, but they were literally fifth and sixth on the team in targets last year, so their loss is significant to the team’s functioning. Those targets should go to the best players on the team: Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery, and Cole Kmet.
Cole Kmet doesn’t even have to do that much to get enough targets to have a significant fantasy impact, given that he already had 93 last season. If he gets an extra target per game, he gets up to 110 targets for 2022, and if the Bears’ offense is at all functional, he should have enough talent to score those six touchdowns he missed out on last season. All-in-all, a growth in target volume and Cole Kmet’s talent & role in the offense should have him growing into a viable back-end TE1 this season.
2022 Cole Kmet Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Cole Kmet is going as a dart throw second tight end in fantasy leagues right now, as $1 in salary cap drafts, and TE14, pick 130 off the board in snake drafts. He’s basically going at the same spot as Irv Smith, Jr. There will be more on him at another time, but suffice it to say that I vastly prefer Cole Kmet to Irv Smith at that spot.
I would, however, urge you to take two tight ends if you’re jumping into the pool at the Cole Kmet spot. I like the warm bath of a Pat Freiermuth or a Hunter Henry, but you could go full YOLO and take Kmet and Albert Okwuegbunam or Gerald Everett and get two upside tight ends to see who breaks through. Since the floor on a tight end is literally zero points every week, I like getting a soothing balm of a solid tight end to go with an upside guy, so I would prefer Freiermuth or Henry. I understand if you get priced out of them that you just take two wild swings. And honestly? I can’t blame you. Once you’re past those guys, taking a solid floor tight end means you’re shooting for the weekly TE12. And that’s a great way to secure fifth place.
Best Case Scenario:
Cole Kmet and Justin Fields grow together in their third and second season, respectively, and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy lets Fields actually throw more than 20 times per game. This leads to Cole Kmet getting 120 targets, and finishing as the TE8.
Worst Case Scenario:
Cole Kmet spends all offseason as the undisputed TE1 in Chicago. He gets all the first-team reps, and he and Justin Fields have a real connection. He is starting to gain a ton of confidence and feels great about the upcoming season. As the Bears prepare to host the 49ers in week one of the NFL season, Matt Eberflus calls Cole Kmet into his office. “Cole, buddy. I have some bad news,” he says. At that moment, Kmet feels a very familiar hand on his shoulder. He looks up, and up. “This guy must be like 6’7”, he’s huge,” Kmet thinks to himself. His stomach drops as he recognizes the glabrous figure. “Hey Cole!” Jimmy Graham bellows, “happy to be your running mate again this year! Coach tells me I’m in like for 50 or 60 targets!”
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]