It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today, we take a look at a receiver who I had to bump down to last in my writing because he had a massive quarterback shift while writing these wide receiver previews. What can Baker Mayfield bring to D.J. Moore and the Carolina Panthers in 2022? Let’s find out with his fantasy football player profile!
D.J. Moore ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR16, 41 overall
Average Auction Value: $12.5
D.J. Moore Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Overview:
Every year, it seems as though we have the exact same conversation about D.J. Moore as we had the year prior. He’s going to be going into 2022 with his fourth different starting quarterback in the last four seasons. I don’t know if he’s a big Rush fan, but he can certainly appreciate the line in Tom Sawyer “changes aren’t permanent, but change is.” So now D.J. Moore goes from Cam Newton to Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Darnold to Baker Mayfield and has a slight increase due to that. Last year, he went as WR23 off the board, at pick 57, on average. This year, he jumps forward about a around, going as WR16, and pick 42 overall.
If all of that sounds familiar, it’s because the names and numbers changed, but I wrote the exact same thing about D.J. Moore last season. Moore is an incredibly talented player, a fact that people use to overlook his truly dreadful quarterback situations. Now, he gets Baker Mayfield, who failed to maximize Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, as his new QB1. I can’t wait for 2023 when we talk about how the new quarterback is going to maximize D.J. Moore, just like people are saying now.
There’s something to be said for consistency, and I would say it if Moore’s top-line stats didn’t lie about his consistency. He finished with about 1200 total yards in each of the last three seasons, and about 90 catches in two of the last three. He also scored four touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. Unfortunately, while that is a remarkable consistency, it didn’t show up in his week-to-week consistency. In the last three seasons, over one-third (36%) of his games saw Moore finish as a non-startable asset. Compare that to Keenan Allen, who may want to take Moore over now, who has finished outside the top 36 just over 28% of the time. That’s the same number of times that Allen finished as a WR1 and a WR2, meaning that nearly 60% of his games have come not only as a startable wide receiver but one you wanted to start.
But, not being as consistent as Keenan Allen is not a crime. And, in fact, it’s a lack of WR3 weeks that damn Moore, as he finished as a WR1 or WR2 just two fewer times than Allen in the last three seasons. But, of course, he wasn’t good, touchdowns are not an indicator of talent, and have outsized productivity in our silly little game. His touchdown luck turning around could make for a great value, but is that value going too far in 2022?
2022 D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
D.J. Moore had insanely bad touchdown luck last year, as he scored a touchdown every 301 yards, every 25 touches, or every 42 opportunities (targets plus carries). The league average for these was a touchdown every 147 yards, or every 18 opportunities, or every 12 touches. So, we can reasonably get away with doubling Moore’s touchdowns because of luck, then we can add a couple for a talent increase. Basically, we can manufacture him up to 10 touchdowns. That would give him an extra 60 fantasy points. If we do that, it boosts him up to 17.1 fantasy points per game in PPR or just 0.1 points per game behind WR10, Stefon Diggs, last season.
Then why, with all this manufacturing, are fantasy prognosticators trying to move him into their top ten at the position? It literally barely works if everything goes right and fails to bake in (pun intended) the question: what if Baker Mayfield just isn’t that good?
As of writing this, he still stands at a decent value, as WR16, and 42 overall. He’s also $12.1 in salary cap drafts. That’s a great value for him! Just be wary of people who move him into their top ten, I believe their exuberance has gotten the best of them, just like every other year with D.J. Moore. By the players going around him, I would prefer Diontae Johnson, George Kittle, Mike Williams, and Antonio Gibson. But, he should go ahead of George Kittle, Cam Akers, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, and Travis Etienne.
Best Case Scenario:
Baker Mayfield and D.J. Moore only have eyes for each other, and he finishes with 1,700 yards on 100 catches and 4 touchdowns.
Worst Case Scenario:
Baker Mayfield and D.J. Moore cannot get onto the same page, the Panthers move to Sam Darnold, then Matt Corral. Moore craters down to 40 catches for 600 yards… and 4 touchdowns.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Base: https://www.publicdomainpictures.net/en/view-image.php?image=23534&picture=dj-at-work under CC BY-SA 2.0]