It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Jaylen Waddle was one of the rookie bright spots in the 2021 NFL season, much like DeVonta Smith. And, much like DeVonta Smith, Waddle is taking a back seat to a star wide receiver this season after the Dolphins pulled off a trade for Tyreek Hill. With ‘Reek, new head coach Mike McDaniel, and a bevy of new faces in the offense, what can we expect from Jaylen Waddle in 2022 fantasy football leagues? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Jaylen Waddle ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR13, 34 overall
Average Auction Value: $17.7
Jaylen Waddle Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Overview:
Jaylen Waddle had himself a nice little rookie season, finishing with 104 catches and 1,015 yards in 16 games. With it, he became the second rookie ever to finish a season with 100 catches and 1,000 yards, behind just Anquan Boldin. He’s also one of only two rookies to finish a season with 100 catches… so, Anquan Boldin again. Prior to 2021, only 19 players finished their rookie season with at least 1,000 yards, and Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Pitts all joined the group last season. Throw all this in a pot with seven touchdowns last season, and you get the PPR WR15.
But, things got a little wobblier for Jaylen Waddle since he finished his 2021 campaign. Namely, the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds, who will take a good amount of targets from Waddle. But, at the same time, I think we have to acknowledge that Jaylen Waddle is good at football, and no amount of adding Chase Edmonds or Tyreek Hill will change that fact. Waddle will be the preferred short-area target for Tua Tagovailoa, who loves to throw short, and struggles to throw deep. That means that he likely gets peppered with targets, turning him into a PPR machine.
But, that’s what we’ve been saying about guys like D.J. Moore, who is annually a backend WR2, and he is yet to break through to being a top-12 wide receiver. But, people are drafting Jaylen Waddle hoping that he will take a step forward in his final season rank, and personally, I don’t see it.
2022 Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Waddle is being drafted at his ceiling, as the WR14 (pick 39) in both snake drafts and salary cap drafts ($17.6). Can you look me in the eyes and tell me that this isn’t taking Jaylen Waddle at his ceiling? Of course, you can’t, because you can’t look text in the eyes, it’s text! Waddle has a great floor, but WR14 that does not make. He’s going ahead of guys with more upside like the aforementioned D.J. Moore.
I don’t like to take players at their absolute ceiling, especially guys who I have to take with a prime pick, like Waddle. If I take him at WR14 and he produces as the WR14, I finish in fifth place. I want to take a guy at WR14 who has a chance to finish at WR4. That’s how you win leagues, not by taking guys at their ceiling, and Waddle feels like a prime ceiling guy because he’s very good at football, and he had a big rookie year, which pumps him up. It completely ignores his downside, which is Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds cannibalizing his targets, leaving him as a lower-end PPR guy. Think of him as more of a Hunter Renfrow than a Cooper Kupp.
Best Case Scenario:
WR14 isn’t his absolute ceiling, and he continues to cruise from his 2021 campaign and finishes as WR10.
Worst Case Scenario:
Chase Edmonds and Tyreek Hill siphon off enough targets as to make Waddle completely irrelevant, and he goes off to find some grapes.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: Miami Dolphins on Twitter]