It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Justin Jefferson is on the short list for best young, dynamic, and talented wide receivers in the NFL. He has a new coaching staff, but is that enough for him to overcome Kirk Cousins’ conservative nature to make him the #1 wide receiver in all of fantasy football? Let’s take a look in his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Justin Jefferson ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR2, 5 overall
Average Auction Value: $58.3
Justin Jefferson Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 167 | 108 | 1616 | 10 | 9.82 | 6.35 | 64.7% | 9.68 | 14.96 |
| 2020 | 16 | 14 | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 8.93 | 5.50 | 70.4% | 11.20 | 15.91 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 222.4 | 276.4 | 330.4 | 13.1 | 16.3 | 19.4 | 1.33 | 1.66 | 1.98 |
| 2020 | 186.2 | 230.2 | 274.2 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 17.1 | 1.49 | 1.84 | 2.19 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 2071 | 12 | 482 | 2.89 | 4.46 | 46% | 29% |
| 2020 | 1421 | 11.37 | 457 | 3.66 | 5.19 | 40% | 25% |
2022 Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Overview:
Here’s the complete list of wide receivers to have at least 2,500 receiving yards in their first two seasons: Justin Jefferson, Randy Moss and Odell Beckham, Jr. Here’s the list of wide receivers with at least 2,800 yards in their first two seasons: Justin Jefferson. Jefferson’s 3,016 yards in his first two years is the most from any wide receiver in NFL history, and he just turned 23. He’s not just in rarified air here, he is the one who rarified it. Future receivers will talk about the beginning of their careers in the context of passing Justin Jefferson for the best start to a career. It isn’t just because he had an extra game in there, either. He and Odell Beckham are the only wide receivers to average over 90 yards per game in their first two seasons (while playing more than 3 games) since the merger.
Jefferson isn’t in rarified air just among rookies, he’s among three wide receivers to average over 90 yards per game over the last two seasons (with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams), and his 17 receiving touchdowns rate ninth in the league in the last two years. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the league, not only because he gets a high volume of targets, (seventh-most in the last two years), but he does a lot on every given target (fourth in yards per target among wide receivers with at least 100 targets in the last two seasons combined). 84 players have at least 100 targets in the last two seasons, only five have a yards per target over ten, and Justin Jefferson is among them.
The Vikings have a new coaching staff, with an offense built from the Sean McVay coaching tree. This is where I think that Justin Jefferson could put all of his skills and usage to good use in finishing as the WR1 in PPR leagues, as all he needs to land there is the touchdowns. And Kevin O’Connell just helped construct an offense that funneled 191 targets to Cooper Kupp, which led to a league-leading 16 touchdowns.
2022 Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Justin Jefferson Salary Cap Value: $55
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
By ADP, Justin Jefferson is in a group of wide receivers that more-or-less draw a dividing line between the 1B tier of running backs (Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, and Najee Harris and the second tier of running backs (Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and D’Andre Swift). He’s my favorite of that group (Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams). Chase has a shot at WR1 overall upside, the same as Jefferson, but his floor is much lower, given his predilection for amassing points via big plays and the four inches of height he yields to Tee Higgins in the end zone.
Justin Jefferson could be this year’s Cooper Kupp, and it wouldn’t even be that big of a leap for him outside of touchdowns. Kupp had 14 WR1 or WR2 games last season, and Jefferson had 11, just three behind him. Should Jefferson get the extra targets afforded to Cooper Kupp last season, the touchdowns should come, and he has an easy path to the #1 overall wide receiver in 2022.
Unfortunately, Jefferson is $58, and that is only a few bucks cheaper than Cooper Kupp in a salary cap draft, meaning that he is best seen as a consolation prize should you miss out on Cooper Kupp. After all, there’s no reason to skimp out on Kupp to get Jefferson.
Best Case Scenario:
I laid all the reasons out that Justin Jefferson could be WR1 this year. Those all come to fruition.
Worst Case Scenario:
Kirk Cousins literally puts the COVID-19 bubble around him this year but doesn’t make any consideration for throwing the football. He refuses to remove it and every snap turns into a rugby scrum as it clanks off the bubble. Somehow, Jefferson still gets 1,200 yards.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
