It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. The Green Bay Packers are down to the mat when it comes to returning skill-position talent, and because of this, A.J. Dillon is easily Aaron Rodgers’ second-most talented weapon (behind Aaron Jones). What can we expect out of Quadzilla for fantasy football this year, as he steps into a bigger role in Green Bay?
A.J. Dillon ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB27, 60 overall
Average Auction Value: $10.5
A.J. Dillon Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 17 | 2 | 187 | 803 | 5 | 37 | 34 | 313 | 2 | 221 | 224 | 1116 |
| 2020 | 11 | 0 | 46 | 242 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 48 | 48 | 263 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 4.29 | 11.0 | 47.2 | 2.18 | 2.00 | 91.9% | 8.46 | 9.21 | 13.00 | 13.18 | 65.6 |
| 2020 | 5.26 | 4.2 | 22.0 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 100.0% | 10.50 | 10.50 | 4.36 | 4.36 | 23.91 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 151.6 | 168.6 | 185.6 | 8.92 | 9.92 | 10.9 | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| 2020 | 38.3 | 39.3 | 40.3 | 3.48 | 3.57 | 3.7 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
2022 A.J. Dillon Fantasy Football Overview:
I love A.J. Dillon this year, and not just because the man has quads that can make anyone blush, but because he’s clearly the second-best weapon on the Green Bay Packers, and they will have no choice but to turn Dillon and Aaron Jones into one of the most potent one-two running back touches in the league. Dillon ended 2021 as the RB29 in fantasy points per game, and he did it on 187 carries and 34 receptions. While the rushing feels somewhat capped, I feel very good about Dillon improving on his 2.2 targets per game from 2021. First of all, the Packers have to rebuild their passing game from scratch and getting the ball to Dillon and Aaron Jones should be a priority.
Second, Dillon’s 2.2 targets per game are deceptively low, as the packers went to-and-from Dillon throughout the year, and he proved that he can take a handful of the targets per game. There was a four-game stretch in the middle of the 2021 season where the Packers leaned on Dillon in the passing game, giving him 4.3 receptions per game, which he turned into 43 yards per contest. If he gets 4/40 through the air to go with 10/40 on the ground, that’s 12 PPR points as a floor for A.J. Dillon, and those are both numbers that he has shown he can have, if given the opportunity to produce.
2022 A.J. Dillon Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
A.J. Dillon Salary Cap Value: $15
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
This right here is why I truly love A.J. Dillon for this season. While we’ve frequently needled Walker Kelly about their love of pass-catching backs and hatred of A.J. Dillon on the Football Absurdity Podcast, much like Boaty McBoaterson, the meme has become reality. A.J. Dillon is one of the higher-end 1B running backs who will get a ton of their value through catching the football. He’s going off the board at RB26, pick 60 overall. This is five picks after Breece Hall, who I would prefer to Dillon, but if Hall is gone, then wheels up on Dillon.
In salary cap drafts, a Dillon & Hall double team is actually my preferred course of action. You can get them both for a combined $21.6, and if you throw in Melvin Gordon for $2.9, that comes out to $24.5 for the three. You can get them, or you can spend $26.5 on Cam Akers, your choice.
I want to get A.J. Dillon onto my rosters as my RB3, and he’s going at a great RB3 price, which means he might even be able to be your RB4. Go ahead and snag him, especially in salary cap drafts, and profit.
Best Case Scenario:
A.J. Dillon tops 200 carries and 50 targets and evolves into his final form (inside the top-fifteen running backs).
Worst Case Scenario:
A.J. Dillon tops 200 sets of squats per day at 50 reps per set and evolves into his final form (one of those pit bulls with way too many muscles that always look like they want to kill or die).
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
