It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look at Josh Jacobs, a former first-round pick who seems to be on the outs in Las Vegas, after they added a Belichicanery disciple in Josh McDaniels, picked up a bevy of running backs, and declined to pick up Jacobs’ fifth-year option. But what can we expect from the fourth-year running back this season for fantasy football?
Josh Jacobs ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB20, 41 overall
Average Auction Value: $14.2
Josh Jacobs Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 15 | 14 | 217 | 872 | 9 | 64 | 54 | 348 | 0 | 271 | 281 | 1220 |
| 2020 | 15 | 15 | 273 | 1065 | 12 | 45 | 33 | 238 | 0 | 306 | 318 | 1303 |
| 2019 | 13 | 13 | 242 | 1150 | 7 | 27 | 20 | 166 | 0 | 262 | 269 | 1316 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 4.02 | 14.5 | 58.1 | 4.27 | 3.60 | 84.4% | 5.44 | 6.44 | 18.07 | 18.73 | 81.3 |
| 2020 | 3.90 | 18.2 | 71.0 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 73.3% | 5.29 | 7.21 | 20.40 | 21.20 | 86.87 |
| 2019 | 4.75 | 18.6 | 88.5 | 2.08 | 1.54 | 74.1% | 6.15 | 8.30 | 20.15 | 20.69 | 101.23 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 172 | 199 | 226.0 | 11.47 | 13.27 | 15.1 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| 2020 | 198.3 | 214.8 | 231.3 | 13.22 | 14.32 | 15.4 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| 2019 | 171.6 | 181.6 | 191.6 | 13.20 | 13.97 | 14.74 | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
2022 Josh Jacobs Fantasy Football Overview:
Josh Jacobs is unlikely to be a Raider this time next season, and his replacement (Zamir White) is likely already on the roster. These are concerns that dynasty fantasy football analysis has allowed to seep into redraft analysis. Don’t get me wrong, these are concerns, but they’re second-half, the Raiders-are-blowing-it concerns. A lot of this stems from a handful of things that are getting insanely overblown by the fantasy football cognoscenti. But before we get into those, let’s talk a but about Josh Jacobs, the football player.
Through the first three years of Josh Jacobs’ career, he averages a hair under 90 yards per game on 17 rush attempts and 3.2 targets per game. But that doesn’t tell the whole story of Josh Jacobs. When Jacobs entered the league, he was a two-down banger, getting just two targets and 18 rush attempts per game. Then, his game evolved, and he added a pass-catching element. In 2021, he had 4.27 targets per game, double his rookie year output. He also upped his catch rate from 74% to 84%, a testament to him working on that part of his game.
2022 Josh Jacobs Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Josh Jacobs Salary Cap Value: $25
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
I put it out there that Josh McDaniels isn’t going to do Belichicanery just because he worked for Bill Belichick; it doesn’t work that way. I got a lot of people really perturbed about Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden in my Twitter mentions. Don’t be one of those people! Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden are both special teamers, Kenyan Drake is a part-timer, and Zamir White is a fourth-rounder for 2023 and beyond.
Right now, Jacobs is outside the top-20 in price in salary cap draft formats ($14.5) and is RB20 off the board, pick 41 overall. So much of this has nothing to do with who Josh Jacobs is as a player, and what Josh Jacobs has shown on a football field. It’s getting hot and bothered about a fourth-rounder and two career special teamers joining the team. Really, it was a bunch of people ready to get mad and worked up over anything. They point to Josh McDaniels as a Bill Belichick disciple, meaning that we can’t trust his running back usage. The last time he had a head coaching gig, McDaniels gave Knowshon Moreno 15 carries and 3 targets per game; that’s not Belichicanery as we know it, and attributing that to McDaniels is, to put it frankly, surface-level analysis.
You can get Jacobs as a glue guy to your running back room for an insanely cheap price. I personally would rather have Breece Hall for $11, but you can’t argue with getting a solid running back in what should be a good offense, who will see few men in the box because they have to worry about Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller instead. He’s a great value and one that is going for less than his actual value because people have decided to get worked up over Ameer Abdullah.
Best Case Scenario:
Josh Jacobs stays secure in the role because a fourth-round running back and two special teamers don’t actually pose an existential threat to a firmly entrenched running back, and the Raiders run him into the ground in the last year of his contract.
Worst Case Scenario:
Ameer Abdullah finally returns to the form that fantasy football twitter got all hot and bothered about (one big preseason run) and he inexplicably becomes the RB1 on the team.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
