It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look a Nick Chubb, who we longingly hope will become a top-five running back every year, only for the vagaries of scoring to deny us that reality. What can we expect from Nick Chubb in 2022 in our fantasy football leagues?
Nick Chubb ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB8, 11 overall
Average Auction Value: $52.5
Nick Chubb Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 14 | 14 | 228 | 1259 | 8 | 25 | 20 | 174 | 1 | 248 | 253 | 1433 |
| 2020 | 12 | 12 | 190 | 1067 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 150 | 0 | 206 | 208 | 1217 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 298 | 1494 | 8 | 49 | 36 | 278 | 0 | 334 | 347 | 1772 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 5.52 | 16.3 | 89.9 | 1.79 | 1.43 | 80.0% | 6.96 | 8.70 | 17.71 | 18.07 | 102.4 |
| 2020 | 5.62 | 15.8 | 88.9 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 88.9% | 8.33 | 9.38 | 17.17 | 17.33 | 101.42 |
| 2019 | 5.01 | 18.6 | 93.4 | 3.06 | 2.25 | 73.5% | 5.67 | 7.72 | 20.88 | 21.69 | 110.75 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 195.3 | 205.3 | 215.3 | 13.95 | 14.66 | 15.4 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| 2020 | 191.7 | 199.7 | 207.7 | 15.98 | 16.64 | 17.3 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| 2019 | 219.2 | 237.2 | 255.2 | 13.70 | 14.83 | 15.95 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
2022 Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Overview:
In each of the last three seasons, Nick Chubb has finished among the league leaders in rushing attempts per game. And he’s a really damn good runner. Unfortunately, his career-high in targets is 3.1 per game, and he’s been below 2 targets per game in three of the last four seasons. That’s where the rub lies with Nick Chubb. He’s the anti-J.D. McKissic, the anti-Nyheim Hines, the anti-James White. These are all pass-catching guys who see their value boosted in a half-PPR or PPR league compared to Chubb. To put it succinctly: Nick Chubb has to run 11 yards to get the same fantasy points that McKissic gets from a one-yard reception in PPR. This crushes Chubb’s value in PPR and half-PPR leagues, not because he’s bad, but because the Browns just don’t use him in a way that maximizes his fantasy football output (and why should they?)
So, we all marvel at the extreme talent displayed by Chubb, but we need to remember that since he doesn’t catch passes, he’s mostly destined to either become Derrick Henry or stay a back-end RB1. And, that can be fine at the right price. Chubb is steadily a running back that you don’t have to worry about taking out of your lineup, even if he won’t have week-winning weeks. Chubb has been an RB1 or an RB2 about 60% of the time in PPR but inside the top-five just 20% of the time.
And that’s the Rubb with Chubb (editor’s note: I’ll allow it): he’s incredible, but not a profile you want in fantasy football. Chubb was second in the NFL in rushing yards last year, but tenth in yards from scrimmage. Remember that not catching passes isn’t just about the PPR aspect, but also about the extra yardage you can get from his receptions.
2022 Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Nick Chubb Salary Cap Value: $46
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
I’m not going out of my way to get Nick Chubb, but he could conceivably fall into the back of the second round if the Deshaun Watson stink surrounding the Browns pulls everyone else down. He’s currently not in danger of going that far, going as a round one pick (pick 12) on average. I hate that, so much. I don’t see a reason to take a guy like Nick Chubb in the first round, considering that he’s just roster glue. He’s the macaroni salad to your roster’s luau buffet… high floor filler. He’s not the star of the show. If you want boring consistency so bad there, just take Travis Kelce, instead. At least tight end is a shallow position that would get you some positional value by taking him there.
I truly don’t understand taking Chubb as RB8, in the first round. He was a top-12 running back 40% of the time in the last three seasons, so you aren’t even buying that floor. He averages 2.7 top-five games per season, so you aren’t buying that ceiling. I don’t really know what you’re buying at that price with Nick Chubb. A lot of non-week winning, but solid performances? Just go get David Montgomery or Josh Jacobs two rounds later; they have 25 and 29 top-24 performances over the last three seasons, compared to 24 for Chubb.
In salary cap drafts, please don’t spend over $50 on Nick Chubb (AAV $53.3). That’s 25% of your budget on a guy who is extremely talented but is unlikely to be a difference-maker for your squad. You can spend that $53 on James Conner ($22) and Saquon Barkley ($31) instead.
Best Case Scenario:
Nick Chubb finally starts catching passes and reaches never before seen heights (RB5).
Worst Case Scenario:
Nick Chubb doesn’t catch passes and keeps doing his thing (RB15).
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nick_Chubb_(42477091350).jpg, cropped under CC BY-SA 4.0]
