It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. Tom Brady was supposed to be last in everyone’s fantasy football ranks. Probably because Tom Brady retired on February 1, then came back six weeks later. I’m not entirely sure what his gameplan was there, but he ousted Bruce Arians when he returned, leading some to theorize it was just a power play for Brady. With that in mind, what can we expect from the man who will be 45 when the season kicks off?
Tom Brady ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB12, 86 overall
Average Auction Value: $5.8
Tom Brady Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Att | Comp | Comp% | Yds | TD | Int | Comp/G | Att/G | Yds/G | TD/G | INT/G |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 485 | 719 | 67.5% | 5316 | 43 | 12 | 28.5 | 42.3 | 312.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | 16 | 16 | 610 | 401 | 65.7% | 4633 | 40 | 12 | 38.1 | 25.1 | 289.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 613 | 373 | 60.8% | 4057 | 24 | 8 | 38.3 | 23.3 | 253.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Year | 4 PPTD | 6 PPTD | 4 PPTD/G | 6 PPTD/G | Year | Att | Yd | TD | YPC | Att/G | Yd/G | |
| 2021 | 374.7 | 460.7 | 22.0 | 27.10 | 2021 | 28 | 81 | 2 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.8 | |
| 2020 | 337.9 | 417.9 | 21.1 | 26.12 | 2020 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | |
| 2019 | 263.7 | 311.7 | 16.5 | 19.48 | 2019 | 26 | 34 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | aDOT+ | Y/A | TD% | INT% | Sacks | Yds/Sack |
| 2021 | 5783 | 8.04 | 0.66 | 7.40 | 8.9% | 2.5% | 22 | 6.55 |
| 2020 | 5427 | 8.90 | 1.17 | 7.60 | 6.6% | 2.0% | 21 | 6.81 |
| 2019 | 4659 | 7.60 | -0.58 | 6.62 | 3.9% | 1.3% | 27 | 6.85 |
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season. Air yards data is from FTNFantasy.com/air-yards
2022 Tom Brady Fantasy Football Overview:
No discussion of Tom Brady would be complete without what he’s done in Tampa Bay. He led the league in pass attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns last year, and ranks #1 or #2 in all those categories over the last two seasons. Tom Brady’s 2022 was the thirteenth time a topped 5,000 passing yards in a season, and the second time Brady did it. As of right now, Brady and Drew Brees are the only players to do it multiple times, though Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes both have one such season under their belt already, so that’s likely to change in the 17-game era.
But, Brady is going to have a tougher go of that this season. He will be without Antonio Brown, who jumping-jacked his way out of the NFL, and without Chris Godwin for some stretch of time due to an ACL tear. Things are up-in-the-air about longtime partner in crime, Rob Gronkowski, but recent reports indicate that Gronk will come back this year for one last ride with Brady.
But, things aren’t all bad for Brady. He still has Mike Evans, who has a chance to solidify himself among the greatest wide receivers of all time by getting a fifth 1,000-yard, ten-touchdown season this year, which would be his ninth-straight 1,000-yard season to start his career. So, we know where Brady will go plenty often. He also got Russell Gage, who had 700 yards for the woeful Atlanta Falcons in each of the last two seasons and is a perfectly competent NFL wide receiver.
Brady looks poised to finish, at worst, in the top-five in relevant passing figures once again. While he doesn’t run the ball at all anymore, he still does enough in the passing game to make him a relevant fantasy football commodity despite his lack of hustle. And as someone nine years his junior, I can’t blame him for not rushing the football.
2022 Tom Brady Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Tom Brady Auction Value: $10
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
Brady is cheap; incredibly cheap. Almost… too cheap. I want to get a quarterback with rushing upside (hello, Jalen Hurts) but Brady is QB12 off the board right now and is $5 in salary cap drafts. Given the price difference between Hurts and Brady in snake drafts, you could almost talk me into waiting on Brady instead of taking Hurts there. In salary cap drafts, I’m taking Hurts… and maybe with a Tom Brady kicker. You could insulate yourself against Jalen Hurts potentially falling apart with a Tom Brady kicker, and all for less than the cost of Lamar Jackson. That’s the kind of play that will keep you from losing out on quarterback entirely. And worst-case scenario, you have two starting quarterbacks.
I’ve talked myself into it, give me both Brady and Hurts in salary cap drafts at their price.
Best Case Scenario:
Tom Brady tops Peyton Manning’s best-ever quarterback season by throwing for 5,500 yards and 55 touchdowns.
Worst Case Scenario:
Tom Brady re-retires just before the preseason, only to unretire just after the preseason.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
If you would like our $7 Draft Kit, then follow this link!
For more analysis like these player profiles, check out these links!
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Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Tom_Brady_%2850831667973%29.jpg, cropped, under CC BY SA 2.0
