It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We’ve run through 20 quarterbacks and 40 running backs; that means it’s time to get to the deepest and most varied position! That’s right, we’re on to the wide receivers! There’s a lot to worry about with 2021 Davante Adams if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. There’s a whole different set of issues even if Rodgers does play.
Davante Adams ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): WR2, Pick 12
Average Auction Value: $51.5 (WR3)
Davante Adams Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2021 Davante Adams Fantasy Football Overview:
It’s hard to find a wide receiver as dominant as Davante Adams was in 2020. Despite playing in just 14 games, he led all receivers in touchdowns with 18 (#2, Tyreek Hill, had 15). While that’s a great number for 2020 Davante Adams, that’s not such a great number for 2021 Davante Adams, because of pure, simple regression.
Since 2000, 150 wide receivers scored at least 10 touchdowns. Of these 150, four scored more than one touchdown per game: 2003 Randy Moss, 2007 Randy Moss, 2020 Davante Adams, and 2020 Tyreek Hill. This is a great sample to work with, since Randy Moss, is, at worst, the third-best wide receiver of all time. It also makes it easier for me to do this next part, to be honest.
2004 Randy Moss lost 4 touchdowns from his total, and 2008 Randy Moss lost twelve touchdowns from his total. That’s an average of an eight touchdown loss, the year after scoring more than one touchdown per game. It’s not just Randy Moss that has me moving off of Davante Adams as the #1 wide receiver this year.
2021 Davante Adams Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
I’m not taking Adams as a top-two (or three) wide receiver this season because he’s played with a historically good Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, for his career, has a record-setting 6.3% touchdown rate. That is, 6.3% of his passes become touchdowns. Last year, that number was 9.1%. Just moving it back to a normal Aaron Rodgers pace knocks Rodgers down from 48 touchdowns to 33 touchdowns. A corresponding touchdown loss for Davante Adams would drop him from 18 touchdowns down to 12 touchdowns. That would cost him 36 fantasy points, and knock him from 2020 WR1 to 2020 WR4.
Best Case Scenario:
He becomes 2000s Terrell Owens, who averaged a touchdown per game four times in eight years.
Worst Case Scenario:
Notice how I did my entire 2021 Davante Adams evaluation without referencing a looming lost season from Aaron Rodgers? Yea.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Davante_Adams_2015-2016_playoffs.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]