It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We’ve run through 20 quarterbacks and 40 running backs; that means it’s time to get to the deepest and most varied position! That’s right, we’re on to the wide receivers! Tyreek Hill is one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL. Somehow, 2020 Tyreek Hill was even more efficient than usual. That’s why you should worry about taking 2021 Tyreek Hill as the first wide receiver off the board in your fantasy football drafts.
Tyreek Hill ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): WR1, Pick 10
Average Auction Value: $57.9 (WR1)
Tyreek Hill Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2021 Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Overview:
Tyreek Hill lit the NFL on fire in 2020, scoring seventeen touchdowns and totaling nearly 1,400 yards. He did this all while missing a game, even. This was all thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense (mostly) picking up where it left off after their Super Bowl win. You remember that Super Bowl? Back before we worried about COVID-19? Those were the days. Anyway, Tyreek Hill was a smash play, turning in five top-five weekly finishes, and finishing outside the top-36 just twice.
But, unfortunately, I’m seeing Tyreek Hill taking a step back in 2021. Not a big one, but 2021 Tyreek Hill isn’t a player I see myself drafting at his draft price. Actually, this should go… down here…
2021 Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
I’m not drafting Tyreek Hill because touchdown regression is coming for him in a big way, and I don’t want to get caught holding the bag by spending massively on him or taking him as the first wide receiver off the board. I have him inside my top-five, so I don’t hate the player. I just don’t think you should take him first overall through sheer touchdown luck.
Throughout his first four years in the league, Tyreek Hill was one of the most efficient touchdown scorers in the entire NFL. Throughout his first four seasons in the league, Tyreek Hill scored 41 touchdowns. Last season, he scored 17. Don’t worry, that isn’t all I have for you, here. Among players with at least 250 touches and 15 touchdowns, Tyreek Hil tied with fellow TD-regression candidate Davante Adams for the lead in touchdown rate from 2016-2019. In those four years, 11.7% of his touches went for touchdowns. Only Antonio Brown touched their touchdown rate, as Brown, Adams and Tyreek Hill were the only receivers meeting that touch & touchdown criteria with a TD rate north of 11%.
But in 2020, Tyreek Hill’s touchdown rate up, and it went up by a lot. In 2020, Tyreek Hill scored 17 touchdowns… on 100 touches. That’s an over 50% increase in his touchdown scoring rate, in one season. It was similar to A.J. Brown’s 17.2% touchdown rate last year, so it could be his new normal. But I’m not paying WR1 prices to find out.
Best Case Scenario:
His 17% touchdown rate is the new normal, and I look silly for telling you he might not be the WR1.
Worst Case Scenario:
His 11% touchdown rate is his normal, and I look like a genius for telling you he might not be the WR1.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/brookward/29494622864 under CC BY SA 2.0]