“That’s why they sent me. I am an expert.” – Karl Hungus, 1988.
Act I: Hubris
In a world where subscriptions to fantasy football expert websites cost a month’s car payment, everyone is looking for the leg up on their competition. The hot take cycle never stops, with fantasy season running 24/7/365.
Every year the Sirius XM fantasy station does their FSGA Champions draft right after the 4th of July. I love to listen because it serves as a kickoff for the redraft fantasy season (I strongly believe dynasty leagues should be drafting in May). This year, the first overall pick was Alvin Kamara.
I LOVE Alvin Kamara. I’ve had him in my home league for his entire career. He has been a staple of that single keeper home league team since I got him off waivers his rookie year, but first overall? FIRST? Dalvin Cook went second? Am I going crazy?
Act II: Land of Confusion by Genesis by Football Absurdity
I was completely taken off-guard. Is CMC still hurt? I checked and didn’t see anything that would suggest CMC won’t be ready for the start of the season. Then, I looked at the next few picks, and they went like this (remember, this is an expert league):
3. Christian McCaffrey
4. Derrick Henry
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Saquon Barkley
WAIT, WHAT? Has the whole world gone crazy? I feel like I’m sane, and to me, there’s no way CMC goes third and Barkley goes sixth in a league that wasn’t manufactured for marketing future subscriptions. You can’t tell me that Kamara is in a better situation than CMC, because with uncertainty in New Orleans at QB, his PPR value is hazy. You can’t tell me CMC is a riskier pick than Dalvin Cook if we’re talking about the possibility of time missed due to injury.
Part III: Like, Share, Subscribe
It’s a pretty genius marketing plan if you think about it. What happens if CMC gets injured again, or Kamara goes superhuman all season, or Dalvin plays like Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson? You bet your bottom dollar those “experts” sing it all season and into the next cycle of fantasy paid subscriptions.
It’s not enough to be a football fan with access to all the stats, tape, and time to review both: you have to provide the controversial picks. I blame Jim Rome, somehow (I do this a lot). Not only does it have me talking, but it also has me writing.
I wrote last week about pivoting. There is no such thing as a pivot in an experts league since everyone is trying to think outside the box. Keep that in mind when you look at expert league drafts before you prepare for your own. If you’re my best friend and you take Kamara at 1.01 in any redraft league, I will laugh at you. Everyone will.
This is why I say, again and again, don’t sweat the experts. They’re shilling for ad revenue and paid subscriptions.
Alvin Kamara, first overall. Sheesh.