2021 Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Player Profile

Baker Mayfield cut list start or sit quarterback sleeper afc wild card AFC Divisional Round Cleveland Browns

It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. It’s hard to tell what 2021 Baker Mayfield will hold for our fantasy football teams, though he showed some promise at the end of 2020. He’s going as a QB2 in most drafts (if not at all), but does Baker Mayfield have QB1 upside?

2021 Baker Mayfield ADP & AAV:

Average Draft Position: QB16, Pick 139
Average Auction Value: $1.2 (T-QB20)

Baker Mayfield Statistics
Year G GS Att Comp Comp% Yds TD Int Att/G Comp/G Yds/G TD/G INT/G
2020 16 16 486 305 62.8% 3563 26 8 30.4 19.1 222.7 1.6 0.5
2019 16 16 534 317 59.4% 3827 22 21 33.4 19.8 239.2 1.4 1.3
2018 14 13 486 310 63.8% 3725 27 14 34.7 22.1 266.1 1.9 1.0
Year 4 PPTD 6 PPTD 4 PPTD/G 6 PPTD/G Year Rush Ru Yds Ru TD YPC Ru Att/G Ru Yd/G
2020 247.6 299.6 15.5 18.73 2020 54 165 1 3.1 3.4 10.3
2019 229.2 273.2 14.3 17.08 2019 28 141 3 5.0 1.8 8.8
2018 240.1 294.1 17.2 21.01 2018 39 131 0 3.4 2.8 9.4
Year Air Yards aDOT aDOT+ Y/A TD% INT% Sacks Yds/Sack
2020 4075 8.38 0.65 7.33 5.3% 1.6% 26 6.23
2019 4539 8.50 0.32 7.17 4.1% 3.9% 40 7.13
2018 4520 9.30 1.12 7.66 5.6% 2.9% 25 6.92

aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average

2021 Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Overview:

Baker Mayfield had an extremely weird 2020 campaign, as he had three distinct seasons with different flavors inside his 16-game output. First, his Odell Beckham games. Then, he lost Odell Beckham but played in three-straight monsoon games. Finally, the skies cleared and Baker Mayfield looked… pretty good! I’m not saying that Baker Mayfield is better without Odell Beckham, that would be a silly assertion to make. What I’m saying is that maybe Baker Mayfield figured out how to be a quarterback when he didn’t have to force the ball to Odell Beckham. Now, he gets Beckham back on top of his promising performances in his non-ODB, non-monsoon games last season: 287 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns per game, with just two picks in seven games.

Those 287 yards, 2.3 passing effort games were good enough to vault Baker Mayfield into the echelon of “set and forget” starters at the end of 2020. From week thirteen to the end of the fantasy football season, Baker scored the fifth-most fantasy points, behind Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. Pretty good company to have.

Baker is at the end of his rookie contract and needs to prove to the Browns that he is worth another go-round and for much more this time. While I generally don’t buy into the contract year claptrap, we do have a confluence of factors here that lead me to believe that the 2021 Baker Mayfield that we are likely to see is likely the best Baker Mayfield that we’ve seen so far.

2021 Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:

Baker Mayfield Auction Value: $3
Draft Ranking: Want rankings tailored to your league settings in a Beersheet? (coming early July)

2021 Baker Mayfield is a must-get for me in all my 2QB leagues this year. He’s going as a middling QB2, and honestly, that feels like his floor. In those leagues, he’s likely to be a weekly set-and-forget starter, despite the Browns’ dedication to The Run. In 1QB leagues, I’m not as bullish on Baker Mayfield. He is definitely an upside guy, and if the draft is deep enough, I will end up with him. But, I prefer guys going around Baker Mayfield (Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence) as upside plays to Baker Mayfield this season.

Baker Mayfield will surpass his average draft position, and for a buck in most salary cap drafts, why not? He’s worth a shot if you whiff on the other guys going in his range.

Best Case Scenario:

Baker Mayfield, emboldened by his time without Odell Beckham, takes a step forward into set-and-forget fantasy football QB1 territory and is a top-eight quarterback in 2022 fantasy football leagues.

Worst Case Scenario:

Baker Mayfield shook and led astray by the siren song of Odell Beckham, throws five picks in each of his first two games. The Cleveland Browns take a cue from his auto insurance commercials and put him in the concession stands.

Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here

Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!


quarterback Beersheets Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers New England Patriots

[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]

[Header Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Baker_Mayfield_vs_Bengals_2019_%282%29.jpg under CC SA 2.0]

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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