It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. It’s hard to tell what 2021 Baker Mayfield will hold for our fantasy football teams, though he showed some promise at the end of 2020. He’s going as a QB2 in most drafts (if not at all), but does Baker Mayfield have QB1 upside?
2021 Baker Mayfield ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB16, Pick 139
Average Auction Value: $1.2 (T-QB20)
Baker Mayfield Statistics
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||YPC||Ru Att/G||Ru Yd/G|
aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average
2021 Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Overview:
Baker Mayfield had an extremely weird 2020 campaign, as he had three distinct seasons with different flavors inside his 16-game output. First, his Odell Beckham games. Then, he lost Odell Beckham but played in three-straight monsoon games. Finally, the skies cleared and Baker Mayfield looked… pretty good! I’m not saying that Baker Mayfield is better without Odell Beckham, that would be a silly assertion to make. What I’m saying is that maybe Baker Mayfield figured out how to be a quarterback when he didn’t have to force the ball to Odell Beckham. Now, he gets Beckham back on top of his promising performances in his non-ODB, non-monsoon games last season: 287 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns per game, with just two picks in seven games.
Those 287 yards, 2.3 passing effort games were good enough to vault Baker Mayfield into the echelon of “set and forget” starters at the end of 2020. From week thirteen to the end of the fantasy football season, Baker scored the fifth-most fantasy points, behind Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. Pretty good company to have.
Baker is at the end of his rookie contract and needs to prove to the Browns that he is worth another go-round and for much more this time. While I generally don’t buy into the contract year claptrap, we do have a confluence of factors here that lead me to believe that the 2021 Baker Mayfield that we are likely to see is likely the best Baker Mayfield that we’ve seen so far.
2021 Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
2021 Baker Mayfield is a must-get for me in all my 2QB leagues this year. He’s going as a middling QB2, and honestly, that feels like his floor. In those leagues, he’s likely to be a weekly set-and-forget starter, despite the Browns’ dedication to The Run. In 1QB leagues, I’m not as bullish on Baker Mayfield. He is definitely an upside guy, and if the draft is deep enough, I will end up with him. But, I prefer guys going around Baker Mayfield (Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence) as upside plays to Baker Mayfield this season.
Baker Mayfield will surpass his average draft position, and for a buck in most salary cap drafts, why not? He’s worth a shot if you whiff on the other guys going in his range.
Best Case Scenario:
Baker Mayfield, emboldened by his time without Odell Beckham, takes a step forward into set-and-forget fantasy football QB1 territory and is a top-eight quarterback in 2022 fantasy football leagues.
Worst Case Scenario:
Baker Mayfield shook and led astray by the siren song of Odell Beckham, throws five picks in each of his first two games. The Cleveland Browns take a cue from his auto insurance commercials and put him in the concession stands.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Header Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Baker_Mayfield_vs_Bengals_2019_%282%29.jpg under CC SA 2.0]