2021 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Player Profile

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. And with the quarterbacks, I start with the 2021 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Player Profile. Why? Because he’s the first on everyone’s list, but should he be?

2021 Patrick Mahomes ADP & AAV:

Average Draft Position: QB1, Pick 19
Average Auction Value: $38.6 (QB1)

Patrick Mahomes Statistics
Year G GS Att Comp Comp% Yds TD Int Att/G Comp/G Yds/G TD/G INT/G
2020 15 15 588 390 66.3% 4740 38 6 39.2 26.0 316.0 2.5 0.4
2019 14 14 484 319 65.9% 4031 26 5 34.6 22.8 287.9 1.9 0.4
2018 16 16 580 383 66.0% 5097 50 12 36.3 23.9 318.6 3.1 0.8
Year 4 PPTD 6 PPTD 4 PPTD/G 6 PPTD/G Year Rush Ru Yds Ru TD YPC Ru Att/G Ru Yd/G
2020 374.4 450.4 25.0 30.03 2020 62 308 2 5.0 4.1 20.5
2019 287 339 20.5 24.21 2019 43 218 2 5.1 3.1 15.6
2018 417.1 517.1 26.1 32.32 2018 60 272 2 4.5 3.8 17.0
Year Air Yards aDOT aDOT+ Y/A TD% INT% Sacks Yds/Sack
2020 4644 7.88 0.15 7.29 5.2% 1.7% 32 6.81
2019 4259 8.80 0.62 8.33 5.4% 1.0% 17 7.47
2018 5278 9.10 0.92 8.79 8.6% 2.1% 26 6.58

aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average

2021 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Overview:

Patrick Mahomes was everything we hoped and prayed he would be when we took him in the first two rounds in our fantasy football drafts. Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson wasn’t, so that’s further solidified Mahomes as a second-round pick for people who want to lock down that production. “That production” is bonkers: 316 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions per game on 39.2 pass attempts. He also kicked in a respectable 20 rushing yards per game (and two scores).

There isn’t much to say about Patrick Mahomes; he’s good. He’s also primed to get better in 2021. Andy Reid has played around with the edges of this wide receiver room but narrowing the field to Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman should get Mahomes a more focused passing tree. A more focused passing tree probably ends with Mahomes throwing impossible passes to people who can catch the ball, instead of dropping it.

2021 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:

Patrick Mahomes Auction Value: $10
Draft Ranking: Want rankings tailored to your league settings in a Beersheet? (coming early July)

First off, to answer the question in the introduction: yes. But you shouldn’t be the one to take him. If you want to take a quarterback early in your draft, then Patrick Mahomes is your guy. He sits in a tier all by himself, at the end of the second round in 1QB leagues. That price is too high to pay for a guy who could arguably end up behind multiple players in tier two, to me.

But, if you’re familiar with fantasy baseball, my thought process behind keeping him as the top QB is the same as Mike Trout. For years, Trout routinely finished inside the top-5 of hitters in fantasy baseball, but without being head-and-shoulders above everyone else. But he was annually the top pick. Why? Because a sure bet at top-five is worth the #1 overall pick in fantasy baseball drafts. It’s the same thing with Mahomes and quarterbacking. Assuming health, he finishes as QB3, at worst.

So, if you want to invest in Mahomes and lock away your QB slot, go for it. That just won’t be me. The pick is all risk at that price. But, if you kick him down a couple of rounds, I’m much happier with it.

Evan Hoovler agrees with this sentiment, as he strongly advises against spending up on a top quarterback (hence his $10 value for Mahomes).

Best Case Scenario:

He breaks literally every single quarterback record. That’s not hyperbole; the new season brings us a seventeenth game for Mahomes to ply his wares. If Patrick Mahomes turned around with 5,500 yards (323.5 per game) and 56 touchdowns (3.3 per game) and on 728 pass attempts (42.8 per game) would that really be that surprising? Because those are all records.

Worst Case Scenario:

Andy Reid, tired of hearing people talk about jamming the #2 wide receivers all together into one person in fantasy football circles, toys around with Human Instrumentality. He accidentally starts the Third Impact.

 

Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here

Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!

Discord!
Podcast!
Patreon!
Twitch!

quarterback Beersheets Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers New England Patriots

[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]

[Header Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Patrick_Mahomes_II.JPG, cropped, under CC SA 4.0]

 

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

View all posts by Jeff Krisko →

0 Comments on “2021 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Player Profile”