As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Kyler Murray was the top fantasy QB in 2020 until his Week 11 shoulder injury. He still finished #2 in terms of total fantasy points. Will the Cardinals rush him less in 2021? Will his leap in the passing game more than make up for it? Most importantly, will Jolene from Football Absurdity’s Special Effects department stop acting like her mom works here and tidy up after herself?
2021 Kyler Murray ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB3, Pick 47
Average Auction Value: $10.7 (AAV)
Kyler Murray Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Att | Comp | Comp% | Yds | TD | Int | Att/G | Comp/G | Yds/G | TD/G | INT/G |
| 2020 | 16 | 16 | 558 | 375 | 67.2% | 3971 | 26 | 12 | 34.9 | 23.4 | 248.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 542 | 349 | 64.4% | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 33.9 | 21.8 | 232.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 2018 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
| Year | 4 PPTD | 6 PPTD | 4 PPTD/G | 6 PPTD/G | Year | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | YPC | Ru Att/G | Ru Yd/G | |
| 2020 | 260.6 | 312.6 | 16.3 | 19.54 | 2020 | 29 | 112 | 0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 7.0 | |
| 2019 | 166.6 | 204.6 | 20.8 | 25.58 | 2019 | 20 | 66 | 0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 8.3 | |
| 2018 | 212.2 | 254.2 | 13.3 | 15.89 | 2018 | 25 | 71 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 4.4 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | aDOT+ | Y/A | TD% | INT% | Sacks | Yds/Sack |
| 2020 | 4304 | 7.71 | -0.02 | 7.12 | 4.7% | 2.2% | 27 | 6.52 |
| 2019 | 4011 | 7.40 | -0.78 | 6.87 | 3.7% | 2.2% | 48 | 6.44 |
| 2018 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A |
aDOT+ represents a player’s depth of target compared to the league average for that season
2021 Kyler Murray Fantasy Football Overview:
While the Cardinals’ 8-8 record may not have pleased all their fans, Murray definitely put a smile on the faces of all the fantasy managers who rostered him. Unlike the frown I got this morning when Jolene took the last I.V. syringe of coffee and did not start a new batch.
The big question concerns the repeatability of Murray’s 819 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Those numbers alone would put him as the RB18.
We can tell you right now: He won’t.
Not only are such huge numbers difficult to repeat, but Arizona also will definitely not be running him as much. They finished the season 2-5 after Murray got injured. So dial back your Murray rushing expectations, just like that witch Jolene keeps dialing back the Football Absurdity office thermostat from the toasty 102 degrees I like it set to.
However, that doesn’t mean Murray’s fantasy performance will suffer. The third-year phenom will undoubtedly make another leap forward in terms of skill. Plus, the Cards have telegraphed that they will focus more on the passing game: They replaced Larry Fitzgerald with A.J. Green and brought in catch-and-run speedster Rondale Moore. Everything should be fine in the fantasy realm. Unlike the reality realm of the Football Absurdity office, where Jolene keeps hogging the pillows on the communal office bed.
2021 Kyler Murray Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Kyler Murray Auction Value: $9
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
As always, in single QB leagues, wait for a QB to fall to you. For Murray, that’s the 5th round or under $10 at auction. In 2-QB leagues (and Superflex), yeah, you can grab him in the first round and bid around $60 for him. That’ll get him on your squad without bleeding too much of your budget. Unlike Jolene, who bled all over my office, and now I need to get a new mahogany desk AND have to meet with H.R.
Best Case Scenario:
Murray steps it up in the passing game and becomes the top QB with much less injury risk than before.
Worst Case Scenario:
Murray struggles with learning to trust his arm more than his feet. Takes a step back in terms of fantasy production, ending up a backend QB1.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0b/Cardinals_WR_DeAndre_Hopkins.jpg under CC BY SA 2.0]
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