Four weeks of the NFL are in the books and coronavirus is steadily making its way through the league, threatening the future of the 2020 season everything is great! We still have start or sit decisions to make, just like Nero just had to get off a sweet fiddle riff. Let’s take a look at which tight ends we should start or sit that are just at the edge of startability on a week-to-week basis. This week, we figure out if we should start or sit Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, or Eric Ebron.
Start or Sit Mike Gesicki at San Francisco
Sit. Next. Sorry, let me give you some information as to why you should sit the #10 tight end in fantasy football right now. First, he has six targets in the last two games. Second, his one good game came against the Bills, who are terrible against the slot (and Gesicki plays out of the slot three-quarters of the time). Third, the Miami Dolphins are an absolute mess. Outside of DeVante Parker, nobody gets consistent production or looks, Gesicki included. Do I still believe in Mike Gesicki, the player? Absolutely. He didn’t forget how to be a physical marvel, and the Dolphins still target him in the end zone a bunch. I’m just not buying it this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have lost basically every single player on the defense. Yet, they still stifle opposing tight ends. Through four weeks, they’ve allowed just 17.7 fantasy points total, while going against Zach Ertz and Evan Engram for two of their four games. Richard Rodgers is the clubhouse leader for TE yardage against the 49ers this season, with 35. They throw the clamps on tight ends, which means you don’t want to start tight ends against them. That’s why I recommend you sit Mike Gesicki this week against the Niners.
As much as that pains me to say.
So sorry, Michael…
Start or Sit Tyler Higbee at Washington Football Team
Things are really weird for Tyler Higbee this season. Jared Goff is throwing the ball about five times per game fewer than his career average. This is crushing Tyler Higbee’s numbers because a ton of these targets end up concentrated in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. On a per-target basis, Higbee’s flashed elite numbers. Higbee ranks as top-five among tight ends in yards per target, yards per route run, catchable target rate, catch rate, and fantasy points per route run. The Goff2Higbee connection has a 157.0 passing rating when Goff targets Higbee. He’s also playing in the slot at a significantly higher rate than in 2019 (20.1% versus 6.4%), meaning he’s getting more quality matchups.
So, I’m rolling Tyler Higbee this week. The Football Team doesn’t put up much of a fight against tight ends so far this year. They’re allowing the twelfth-most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season, and they gave up three touchdowns to tight ends in the last three weeks. Higbee is touchdown-or-bust right now until his volume goes up, but I’m saying to start Tyler Higbee this week as a good player in a good offense in a good matchup.
Start or Sit Eric Ebron versus Philadelphia
Oh boy, Eric Ebron. We meet again. I was screaming at people for Eric Ebron in the great Ebron vs. Doyle debate a few years ago. Then, I was screaming at people against Eric Ebron this offseason. Now, here we are. It’s Eric Ebron’s time, again. Ebron has seen twelve targets in the last two games, which he’s turned into 95 yards and a touchdown. He had some trouble in week one, and he ran up against the COVID Titans in week four.
Now, he gets the Philadelphia Eagles. As I was typing this, I’m sure another Eagle went on IR. The Eagles are due for a down week this week after scaling the mountaintop and defeating the 49ers, on the road, on Sunday Night Football. Even if they aren’t due for a down week, the regular ol’ Philadelphia Eagle tight end defense should be enough to make Eric Ebron a good play this week. The Eagles have given up five TE touchdowns through four weeks this season (and gave Higbee his only good week in the process). They also let George Kittle go fifteen-for-fifteen for 183 yards. It’s a smash matchup, so I am going to start Eric Ebron this week.
If I have to make a start or sit decision between these three players, I am going to focus on matchup and opportunity. Ebron has the best matchup and will edge out Higbee because of his opportunities. Gesicki is a distant third; I dropped Mike Gesicki to pick up Eric Ebron this week. I know.