As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Patrick Mahomes ended last year as QB6 in points per game last year, what went wrong, and can we expect a return to form from Mahomes in 2020 as Kansas City defends their Super Bowl title?
Patrick Mahomes ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB2, 23 overall
Average Auction Value: $40
Patrick Mahomes Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Patrick Mahomes Overview:
The NFL held its breath last season as it looked like their young, fresh-faced star might be out for the season. He dislocated his patella but ended up missing just two games as he did not need season-ending surgery. It’s understandable that Patrick Mahomes was not Patrick Mahomes last year, but he was still a reasonable facsimile. But, how did Mahomes perform before his injury?
Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap in week seven last year, so let’s look at weeks one through six. What was his pace, did he take a massive step back? Did the loss of Tyreek Hill for part of that timeframe cause him serious issues? Did he have obvious regression? Well, he was throwing for 350 yards per game and was on pace to have a 37:3 touchdown to interception ratio. His touchdowns went down, but he was still on pace to, when you include rushing, go for over 5,800 yards. Five thousand eight hundred yards. He also threw for at least three touchdowns in four-of-six games to start the season.
So yeah, he was just as good as he was in 2018, even if the touchdowns aren’t there. He should be even better in 2020, as the gang’s all there, and they even added Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the mix. If you ever liked Patrick Mahomes, he could have his best season yet this year. Even better than 2018.
Patrick Mahomes Draft Strategy:
If you want him, get him. There’s a massive chance he ends up as the #1 quarterback in all of the land, and he’s going as the #2 quarterback off the board. So I guess, that’s value? If you don’t want to mess around with the quarterback rotation or streaming, and you have faith in your ability to snag late running backs, then go for it. Just give me your confidence in snagging late-round running backs, because they stink out loud this year. Just know and internalize that the leg up you get from having Patrick Mahomes may end up with you having a leg… down(?) at running back.
In an auction, we strongly recommend against paying up for a quarterback. That is why Evan Hoovler’s draft ranks top out at $13 for Lamar Jackson and $12 for Patrick Mahomes. The rest of your team will thank you if you don’t use your hard-handed-to-you-by-the-computer-fake-dollars cash.
Best Case Scenario:
5,500 yards, 50 touchdowns, five interceptions sound insane but also… not insane for Patrick Mahomes.
Worst Case Scenario:
Patrick Mahomes finds his new calling and joins the cast of a reboot of The Muppet Show.
[Header Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Patrick_Mahomes_II.JPG, cropped, under CC SA 4.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]