As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Drew Brees missed multiple games with injury for the first time in his career last year with a thumb injury. When he returned, was he the same old Drew Brees? Yeah. He was, then why is he going so late? Let’s take a look at 2020 Drew Brees.
Drew Brees ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB10, 90 overall
Average Auction Value: $4
Drew Brees Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Drew Brees Overview:
Drew Brees was still Drew Brees last season. He had one truly horrendous game, but he left after five pass attempts, one of which caused him to break his thumb. He never dipped into single-digit points last season and threw four picks all year (one of which was the play on which he broke his thumb). After returning from his thumb injury, Brees had at least three touchdown passes against every team that doesn’t play in Atlanta. He ended the year throwing 15 touchdowns in four games, completely on fire down the stretch. If you take just his non-injury games, Brees was QB6 last year. He once again led the league in completion percentage, and his 1.1% interception rate was among the league leaders.
There was nothing un-Breesian about his 2019 campaign. In fact, if you just take his per-game stats (including the injury game) and roll them forward to a full sixteen game schedule, he would have ended with 4,333 yards, 39 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 550 pass attempts. This was better than his 2018 pace: 4,258 yards, 34 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
Drew Brees Draft Strategy:
Look at that Drew Brees overview and answer me this question: Why is Drew Brees so far down the ranks? With the addition of Emmanuel Sanders and the promise of a full campaign from Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook? It boggles the mind. His game is predicated on smart, quick passes, something Brees still has in spades (he tied for seventh in lowest bad pass rate last year). Brees is the last starting quarterback off the board in ten-team leagues, going as pick 90 overall. In a twelve-team league, that’s your seventh-round pick, almost exactly in the middle of the draft. I personally drafted him in the ninth round last week. That’s just incredible value.
If you want to sign up for a strong, efficient quarterback in the middle rounds of your draft, then Drew Brees is your man. He’s going almost exactly in the middle of the draft, and if you can stretch him to the eighth round, that’s the core of your roster set before capping it off with one of the best quarterbacks of all time coming off one of his best half-seasons yet.
In an auction, he’s a great value, going for $3 extra than the minimum cost to acquire a player. Amazing value for who could easily be a top-five quarterback.
Best Case Scenario:
Drew Brees’ second half is his new normal and he ends up around 40 touchdowns and six or seven picks. He ends up as a top-five quarterback at the season’s end.
Worst Case Scenario:
Drew Brees retires to pursue his true love: campaigning for Guantanamo Bay to stay open.
[Header Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Drew_Brees_prepares_to_pass_vs_Seahawks_in_2011_NFC_wildcard.jpg under CC SA 2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]