As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Matthew Stafford was playing on an incredible pace last season when he fractured his back. He has an undeserved injury-prone reputation, which might be driving down his price this year. What can we expect from Matthew Stafford in 2020?
Matthew Stafford ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB13, 111 overall
Average Auction Value: $3
Matthew Stafford Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Matthew Stafford Overview:
In the first half of the 2019 season, Matthew Stafford was on pace for an extremely efficient passing season. Before his back injury cost him the second half, Stafford paced out for 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on just 582 pass attempts. It would have made him the fourth QB to top 4,900 passing yards and 35 touchdowns on fewer than 600 pass attempts. Stafford was the #4 QB in this timeframe last season. His torrid pace was likely aided by the Lions pressing downfield when they threw it: Marvin Jones Jr and Kenny Golladay were the only teammates with 70 or more targets and an average depth of target 13 or more yards downfield.
The Lions offense added D’Andre Swift and Geronimo Allison to Stafford’s weaponry, with the first likely doing a whole lot more this season than the second. He also gets a full season from T.J. Hockenson, who had a breakout game against the tight end free space Arizona in 2019 then fell off the face of the earth. Stafford has a lot of weapons at his disposal this year, and should easily finish inside the top-ten at quarterback.
Also, let’s address Matthew Stafford and injuries. Stafford lost the second half of the season to a broken back. No, Stafford is not injury prone. Stafford received that label early in his career, and common refrain cried out after he hurt his back last season that he’s fragile. Last year’s games were the first Stafford’s missed since the 2011 season; he is not injury prone.
Matthew Stafford Draft Strategy:
Matthew Stafford has fallen comfortably into the draft spots vacated by Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. He’s an older QB, but not as old as you’d think (he’s only 32!), and he has limited rushing upside, but his high passing yardage and touchdown totals make him a high-floor week-to-week starter.
Stafford is currently going for $2 in auctions, making him well worth the effort according to Evan Hoovler’s auction values. He’s the QB13 off the board, going around pick 111 in snake drafts, making him a great value if you want to wait around for quarterback. Keep in mind, Stafford doesn’t really have top-five upside unless he continues his torrid numbers from the first half of last year. That having been said, he should fall nicely into that QB7-QB10 range when all is said and done. If you want to fill out the rest of your roster before plucking him up in the tenth round, you could do a lot worse.
Best Case Scenario:
Matthew Stafford continues his crazy pace from last season and ends the year with 5,000+ yards and 40+ touchdowns, solidifying him as an upper-middle-class fantasy football quarterback.
Worst Case Scenario:
Stafford gets a wicked staph infection from his houseboat partying and spends the season on dose after dose of antibiotics.
[Header Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikemorbeck/16267750247/ under CC BY SA 2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]