As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Lamar Jackson redefined bursting onto the scene last season en route to one of the best fantasy football quarterback seasons of all-time at the ripe old age of 22. What can we expect from the third-year signal-caller in 2020?
Lamar Jackson ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB1, 15 overall
Average Auction Value: $41
Lamar Jackson Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Lamar Jackson Overview:
Well, what is there left to say about Lamar Jackson that hasn’t already been said? He had more rushing yards than any two quarterbacks combined and smashed Michael Vick’s rushing yards record by over 160 yards… and he didn’t even play in week seventeen! 2019 was pure uncut domination from Lamar Jackson, and the only thing that kept him from even better numbers was being too good through three quarters. He sat in the fourth quarter in five different games in addition to not playing at all in week seventeen.
He was a dominant force, and there are no real signs of him slowing down in any significant way. At worst, he’s the consensus QB2 headed into the year after turning in the highest fantasy points per game for any quarterback ever in 2019.
Lamar Jackson Draft Strategy:
Lamar Jackson Auction Value: $13*
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
If you want a top-two quarterback on your roster this season, you’re going to pay up for him. Since 2016, no quarterback has an ADP in the top-fifteen in a given year, but Lamar Jackson comes the closest: 15.1. Patrick Mahomes ended last year with an ADP of 16.5, for reference. The last time a QB went in the top-15 was Andrew Luck’s 2015 (pick 9.8, on average).
Personally, I don’t pay for a quarterback in the second round. I don’t. If Lamar Jackson falls to the third or fourth, sure, but given the running back situation this year, I’m not reaching to get L-Jax. The key is finding the next Lamar Jackson, not paying up for the current one. You can see the difference in thought process between our auction value and the average auction value.
*Lamar Jackson’s draft value is based on Evan Hoovler’s Barbecue Strategy. He’s done more auctions than you. Just go with it.
Best Case Scenario:
Lamar Jackson returns on his absurd ADP and you are rewarded by having him turn in yet another all-time fantasy football quarterback season.
Worst Case Scenario:
Lamar Jackson gets really into fantasy football, quits the NFL, and drafts Patrick Mahomes in the second-round of your fantasy football league.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
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