It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today, we take a look at an over-the-hill wide receiver who just continues to produce, who will be in the same offense, and who will have the same personnel and quarterback around him. Yet, we have all decided he will take a step back. Make it make sense, Adam Thielen fantasy football player profile!
Adam Thielen ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR32, 75 overall
Average Auction Value: $2.0
Adam Thielen Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 13 | 13 | 95 | 67 | 726 | 10 | 7.31 | 5.15 | 70.5% | 7.64 | 10.84 |
| 2020 | 15 | 15 | 108 | 74 | 925 | 14 | 7.20 | 4.93 | 68.5% | 8.56 | 12.50 |
| 2019 | 10 | 10 | 48 | 30 | 418 | 6 | 3.00 | 1.88 | 62.5% | 8.71 | 13.93 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 132.8 | 166.3 | 199.8 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 15.4 | 1.40 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| 2020 | 180.0 | 217.0 | 254.0 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 16.9 | 1.67 | 2.01 | 2.35 |
| 2019 | 84.4 | 99.4 | 114.4 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 2.38 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 903 | 9.5 | 239 | 2.52 | 3.57 | 27% | 20% |
| 2020 | 1239 | 11.5 | 243 | 2.25 | 3.28 | 35% | 25% |
| 2019 | 586 | 12.2 | 117 | 2.44 | 3.90 | 24% | 17% |
2022 Adam Thielen Fantasy Football Overview:
Since Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen started to hook up, Thielen has been a remarkably consistent wide receiver, and we’ve tried (in vain) every season to punch holes in his connection with Kirk Cousins. But, all Thielen does is produce. In his four seasons with Cousins, he has nineteen top-12 weeks, fourteen weeks as a WR2 or a WR3, and just 21 games (38%) of his games have been outside the top-36. This helps to explain why he’s been a top-fifteen wide receiver in fantasy points per game in three of the last four seasons. The reason for this? Touchdowns, baby! And that’s just the thing that people try to poo-poo and handwave away, but the simple fact of the matter is that Thielen is one of the most targeted wide receivers inside the ten-yard line, which is why he has so many touchdowns. Thielen had eight targets inside the ten last year. He caught all eight and turned them into six touchdowns. He also did that while missing four games; if you scale his per game up to a whole season, he finishes with ten ten-zone targets last year, which ties him with Diontae Johnson for the eleventh-most ten-zone targets at wide receiver. That’s not a massive stretch, either, as he had thirteen in 2020 (fourth at the position).
That’s because Adam Thielen is the preferred target in and around the end zone for Kirk Cousins. Sorry to any Irv Smith breakout proponents out there, but that’s Adam Thielen Territory. And, because we immediately want to crown touchdown regression as the law of the land, we don’t want to believe that is the case. Well sorry haters and losers, but Adam Thielen scored ten touchdowns last year and has averaged 12 touchdowns per seventeen games with Kirk Cousins. He’s still an incredible technician that lets him get open with very little space, and because of that, he’s one of the premier touchdown threats in the NFL.
2022 Adam Thielen Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Adam Thielen Salary Cap Value: $2
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Adam Thielen is a great value in fantasy drafts because he’s going as WR32 off the board, and at pick 75 overall. There’s no reason to think that things will change for him in Minnesota, especially since the Vikings just added a branch of the Sean McVay coaching tree, who will help to maximize the receiver talent in Minneapolis. He’s an even better value in salary cap drafts where he comes in at just $2 by average salary price. Thielen starts at ten touchdowns this season and will go from there. Where else can you get that floor this late in drafts? You can’t!
There is some downside with Thielen, and I feel like I would be remiss not to mention that Thielen has missed multiple games in two of the last three years. But, at the same time, he’s been WR19 in fantasy points per game in that timeframe. So, you can take that tradeoff at pick 73 or for a couple of bucks in a salary cap draft.
Best Case Scenario:
Adam Thielen drops 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns on the league.
Worst Case Scenario:
Adam Thielen drops 10 touchdowns. As in, he doesn’t catch them. He finishes with seven touchdowns as WR40.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
