It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today we take a look at a wide receiver who will enter 2022 as Zach Wilson’s #2 receiver. Should we worry about Garrett Wilson in New York, or is it wheels up with Elijah Moore? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Elijah Moore ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR35, 81 overall
Average Auction Value: $2.8
Elijah Moore Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2022 Elijah Moore Fantasy Football Overview:
It’s hard to find a player who burned as bright as Elijah Moore before the fantasy gods snatched him from us last season (he missed the last five games of the season due to COVID-19 issues as well as injuries). From weeks seven through thirteen, Moore averaged 6 catches for 77 yards per game, while scoring 5 touchdowns in six games. That was the first time the Jets gave him any sort of concerted target volume, as he had just 5 targets per game in his first five games of the season. Obviously, that small sample size causes some issues with projecting him forward to 2022.
Also of concern? Elijah Moore averaged 20.1 PPR points per game without Zach Wilson, and 8.1 in games with Zach Wilson, per RotoViz.com’s Player Splits Tool. Moore had just 1.14 more targets per game without Wilson, but he averaged over 55 more yards per game on three additional receptions. It’s sad to say, but Zach Wilson and Elijah Moore just never got the ball rolling. But, it’s rough to hold any of that against him, given that Moore topped out at 26 and 23 snaps in back-to-back games in weeks three and five (he was inactive in the middle due to a concussion). Really, it came down to him and Zach Wilson never being able to get on the same page at the start of their respective careers.
I was a big fan of Elijah Moore coming out of college last year, as he was a jack of all trades. His ability to catch a 50+ yard bomb or take a bubble screen 50+ yards to the house will both serve him well this season as the Jets try to fit him in and around first-round rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson (the near-consensus WR1 in this class).
In the end, Elijah Moore was a victim of starting his career at the same time as Zach Wilson, a quarterback who saw the spotlight as too bright to start his career. Wilson threw for zero touchdowns in seven-of-thirteen starts and multiple touchdowns in just three games. You can’t do much as a rookie if that’s what your fellow rookie quarterback is putting up on the board. Hopefully, Zach Wilson should take a step forward in 2022. Elijah Moore’s fantasy football value depends on it.
2022 Elijah Moore Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
So, here’s the thing. As a general rule, I don’t want to draft the second wide receiver on an offense whose upside is, “maybe Zach Wilson can look like an actual, competent quarterback in back-to-back games for the first time in his NFL career. Because as of right now, Wilson is looking closer to a practice squad player than a God Squad player, averaging 173 passing yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions per game. In fact, I don’t want to lean into the offense where the quarterback became the sixth QB in NFL history to have a rookie year with at least 300 pass attempts, single-digit passing touchdowns, and double-digit interceptions. The last two guys to do it was Kyle Orton in 2005 and David Carr in 2002. Carr started just 12 games the following year and failed to reach 300 pass attempts, but he did have single-digit touchdowns and double-digit picks again!
All this is to say… I don’t want to get a wide receiver in this offense. At all. And I especially don’t want one who failed to click with the rookie quarterback and who had another wide receiver come in over the top (a first-round pick) to likely push him down to second fiddle. There’s also the issue that Corey Davis is still there and they signed two pass-catching tight ends and drafted a pass-catching wide receiver. It’s a criminally small passing pie in New York and one that is getting cut up too many ways. Moore is WR30, 74 by ADP, ahead of Hunter Renfrow, Darnell Mooney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Gabriel Davis. That makes literally no sense. By AAV, if you want to throw the $3 at him so you can try to prove some point, sure. Have at it.
Best Case Scenario:
Zach Wilson bucks the haters and puts together a good fall, getting Elijah Moore plenty of targets, and plenty of production.
Worst Case Scenario:
Zach Wilson retires to host MILF Island, this fall on NBC. Elijah Moore & Joe Flacco don’t work together, and Moore finishes as WR60.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: New York Jets on Twitter]