It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today, we take a look at one of two wide receivers who switched teams during the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. What can we expect from Marquise Brown with the Arizona Cardinals? Let’s take a look in his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Marquise Brown ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR20, 54 overall
Average Auction Value: $3.4
Marquise Brown Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 16 | 16 | 146 | 91 | 1008 | 6 | 9.13 | 5.69 | 62.3% | 6.90 | 11.08 |
| 2020 | 16 | 14 | 100 | 58 | 769 | 8 | 7.14 | 3.63 | 58.0% | 7.69 | 13.26 |
| 2019 | 14 | 11 | 71 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 4.44 | 2.88 | 64.8% | 8.23 | 12.70 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 135.3 | 180.8 | 226.3 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 14.1 | 0.93 | 1.24 | 1.55 |
| 2020 | 125.0 | 154.0 | 183.0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 1.25 | 1.54 | 1.83 |
| 2019 | 100.4 | 123.4 | 146.4 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 1.41 | 1.74 | 2.06 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1631 | 11.3 | 388 | 2.68 | 4.26 | 31% | 26% |
| 2020 | 1292 | 13.1 | 274 | 2.77 | 4.72 | 39% | 27% |
| 2019 | 782 | 11 | 226 | 3.18 | 4.91 | 23% | 18% |
2022 Marquise Brown Fantasy Football Overview:
Marquise Brown is the newest wide receiver to join his college quarterback, as the Ravens acquiesced to his trade request to move him to Arizona, where he feels their offense is a better fit for his skills. The easy comparison is the dearly departed Christian Kirk (he’s still alive, just in Jacksonville, which is kind of like being dead), who was the fastest deep threat on the Cardinals last season. Kirk ranked fifteenth in deep targets, with 23 per game, and fourteenth in yards per target, with 9.5 yards per target. Kirk also surpassed Marquise Brown in average depth of target, as Kirk’s average target went 11.2 yards downfield and Marquise Brown’s went 10.5. So, Hollywood Brown’s baseline production should be roughly analogous to Christian Kirk’s last season, as it doesn’t appear as though Kirk and Hollywood Brown are significantly different at the catch point (nearly identical True Catch Rate, per Playerprofiler.com), despite Hollywood torching defensive backs (#8 route win rate versus #22 for Kirk).
In the end, I expect much of the same for Hollywood Brown as we saw from Christian Kirk last year, as long as Kyler Murray remains healthy. In fourteen games last year, Kyler and Kirk connected for 4.4 catches for 57.7 yards per game, or 12.4 PPR points per contest. That would have been roughly WR36 last season, but again, that’s the floor.
I call that his floor because he literally did better than that in Baltimore last season, where he was WR21 at 14.1 fantasy points per game (with 888 unrealized air yards). When you consider that the Cardinals spent a first-rounder on Hollywood, who had 90 catches for 1000 yards in an offense he didn’t think suited him very well last season, and that DeAndre Hopkins will miss six games, Marquise Brown could finish inside the top-15 in wide receivers with relative ease.
2022 Marquise Brown Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Marquise Brown Salary Cap Value: $5
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Hollywood Brown is one of the better deals in fantasy football right now, mostly because there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding him, so fantasy football managers aren’t quite sure what to do with him. He’s WR24, and pick 64 by ADP. That’s a pretty great deal on him, where you can pair him with Brandin Cooks (who you take a full round before ADP, you hear me, make sure you get Brandin Cooks) for relatively cheap and laugh as you get two Budget WR2 for the price of WR3s. In salary cap drafts, however? That’s where the Marquise Brown value really shines. He’s $3.3 by AAV and $5 by Football Absurdity Draft Value. That’s just 2.5% of your budget, and you can get a slam dunk starting WR in three-wide receiver leagues. That’s exactly where you want to spend 2.5% of your budget.
Best Case Scenario:
Marquise Brown stops the Cardinals from imploding down the stretch yet again, and he finishes as WR9 thanks to 1,200 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Worst Case Scenario:
Kliff Kingsbury continues to krash in the second half of the season, and the Kardinals’ kollapse takes Hollywood Brown with it.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Photo Credit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marquise_Brown.png under cc-2.0]
