It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. A lot has changed for Terry McLaurin in the past six months; he has a new quarterback in Carson Wentz, a new WR corps-mate in Jahan Dotson, and a brand-new big contract. But, is Terry McLaurin due for a change in fortune in 2022? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Terry McLaurin ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR17, 43 overall
Average Auction Value: $9.7
Terry McLaurin Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 130 | 77 | 1053 | 5 | 7.65 | 4.53 | 59.2% | 8.10 | 13.68 |
| 2020 | 15 | 15 | 134 | 87 | 1118 | 4 | 8.93 | 5.80 | 64.9% | 8.34 | 12.85 |
| 2019 | 14 | 14 | 93 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 5.81 | 3.63 | 62.4% | 9.88 | 15.84 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 136.5 | 175.0 | 213.5 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 1.05 | 1.35 | 1.64 |
| 2020 | 136.8 | 180.3 | 223.8 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 14.9 | 1.02 | 1.35 | 1.67 |
| 2019 | 133.9 | 162.9 | 191.9 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 1.44 | 1.75 | 2.06 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1717 | 13.1 | 307 | 2.34 | 3.99 | 42% | 25% |
| 2020 | 1310 | 9.8 | 468 | 3.49 | 5.38 | 48% | 27% |
| 2019 | 1299 | 14 | 217 | 2.33 | 3.74 | 41% | 22% |
2022 Terry McLaurin Fantasy Football Overview:
Terry McLaurin is yet to finish higher than WR20 in fantasy football leagues, but that has a lot to do with his quarterback play. He has had to endure Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Colt McCoy, and Case Keenum throwing him the football. So, a lot of people want to talk about how these guys drove down his potential, preventing him from hitting his upside. While that can be true, it’s not like Washington didn’t give him plenty of opportunities to succeed. He ranked tenth in targets (seventeenth in air yards) in 2020, and thirteenth in targets (fourth in air yards) in 2021. Terry McLaurin has had plenty of opportunities to succeed but has dealt with not-great quarterback play in his time in the league.
McLaurin has been astonishingly consistent, landing with 900, 1,100, and 1,000 yards in his first three years in the league, to go with 58, 87, and 77 receptions and 7, 4, and 5 touchdowns. If you put down 85 catches, 1,100 yards, and 5 touchdowns for McLaurin, you could probably get within spitting distance of his final numbers.
Yet, some talk like Carson Wentz is the key to unlocking McLaurin. Specifically, they point to Carson Wentz’s deep ball completion percentage in 2021, where he finished sixth at QB with a 43% completion percentage. In the four years prior to that, he failed to finish with a completion percentage north of 35%, and finished, on average, as QB21 in that statistic. Call me unimpressed by one year of expert quarterback play from a guy with a whole career of not being that. And it’s because of that, that I’m out on Terry McLaurin at his ADP.
2022 Terry McLaurin Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Terry McLaurin Salary Cap Value: $8
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Terry McLaurin’s draft price is, respectfully, cuckoo banana pants. It’s insane! I don’t understand how we can be leaning into McLaurin in an offense that likely won’t be too potent, and if it is potent, it’s because of spreading the ball around. Yet, by AAV ($9.6, WR17) and ADP (WR16, 43 overall), we all are projecting a big step forward for Terry McLaurin. Why? I don’t understand it, and I don’t understand any sort of arguments that say that Wentz is the best quarterback that he’s played with. Depending on your reckoning, Wentz could be worse than Alex Smith and/or Case Keenum, neither of whom managed to maximize McLaurin.
The deep ball argument is a bust, so it’s just over drafting McLaurin based solely on vibes. Please don’t overdraft based on vibes. Let someone else jump on that grenade and get another WR2/WR3 season out of Terry McLaurin.
Best Case Scenario:
Terry McLaurin and Carson Wentz click and McLaurin gets as many as 1,300 total yards and 9 touchdowns, finishing as WR15.
Worst Case Scenario:
Terry McLaurin and Carson Wentz fail to click and McLaurin finishes somewhere near WR30.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Terry_McLaurin_closeup.jpg under CC BY SA 2.0]
