It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Michael Pittman broke out and led (with Jonathan Taylor) the Colts’ passing game in 2021. Now, he has an undoubted upgrade at quarterback, with Matt Ryan making his way over from Atlanta. Despite a lack of weapons around him, Pittman produced in 2021; can he keep that going in 2022? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
Michael Pittman ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR14, 35 overall
Average Auction Value: $21
Michael Pittman Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 129 | 88 | 1082 | 6 | 7.59 | 5.18 | 68.2% | 8.39 | 12.30 |
| 2020 | 13 | 8 | 61 | 40 | 503 | 1 | 7.63 | 3.08 | 65.6% | 8.25 | 12.58 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 150.6 | 194.6 | 238.6 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 1.17 | 1.51 | 1.85 |
| 2020 | 58.9 | 78.9 | 98.9 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 0.97 | 1.29 | 1.62 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1189 | 9.6 | 346 | 2.79 | 3.98 | 31% | 25% |
| 2020 | 507 | 8.5 | 293 | 4.88 | 7.33 | 15% | 14% |
2022 Michael Pittman Fantasy Football Overview:
Michael Pittman ranked second in the league in WR2 weeks, with five of them. There’s no better way to describe Pittman than that statistic. He had two games each in the WR1 ranks and the WR3 ranks, but the man lived, and feasted, among the WR2 in the league. That isn’t to say that Pittman isn’t good, he’s very good. It’s just to say that the Colts’ ideal game plan did not include airing it out with any sort of frequency. That’s evidenced by (1) Jonathan Taylor running roughshod all over the league, and (2) the Colts throwing the football with the fifth-lowest frequency in the league. You would go with that game plan if you had Carson Wentz as your quarterback, too.
But, fast forward to 2022 and the Colts have traded in Carson Wentz for Matt Ryan. Say what you want about Matt Ryan from a fantasy football perspective, but the man is still a good real-life quarterback who will be throwing from behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and his WR1 will be the main beneficiary of that development. Matt Ryan ranked eleventh in true completion percentage last season, and Carson Wentz ranked 28th, which helps to explain Pittman’s 44th-rated catchable target rate last season. Should he jump up to, say, Russell Gage’s catchable target rate, that will move him up to 20th in that statistic, per PlayerProfiler.com.
2022 Michael Pittman Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Michael Pittman Salary Cap Value: $13
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
It’s all upside with Michael Pittman because we’ve already seen his floor. Now we get to see what he can do with a quarterback upgrade. Thankfully, Pittman isn’t a sexy name, so we can get him for a deal in our snake drafts. Unfortunately, we get no such bonus in salary cap drafts. Pittman is WR17 in snake drafts, and $21 in salary cap drafts (WR13 by price).
Pittman is a good example of evaluating not just a player and their upside, but also their relative price. In snake drafts, Pittman is a great value, going literally right between Terry McLaurin and D.J. Moore, as McLaurin, Pittman and Moore make up picks 45, 46, and 47 by ADP. I would rather have him than Moore or McLaurin. So, those picks are absolutely perfect. Unfortunately, that $21 in snake drafts feels like a value whirlpool. It seems like something that should help you build your squads, but given his narrow range of outcomes, those $21 are likely better spent somewhere else, especially since you can get Diontae Johnson and Mike Williams for the same price. He’s very solid, but his name’s sexiness outstrips his likely production this year, making him a trap in salary cap drafts.
Best Case Scenario:
Matt Ryan turns Michael Pittman into his new Julio Jones, and he finishes inside his top-five at the position.
Worst Case Scenario:
Matt Ryan turns Michael Pittman into his new Russell Gage, and he finishes inside the top-five waiver wire streamers every week.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: Michael Pittman on Twitter]
