It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. The biggest trade in the 2022 NFL Draft was between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans. Philly sent their first-round pick to Tennessee, and A.J. Brown made his way to Philly, where he immediately signed a big contract extension. Now that he’s playing with his best friend in Jalen Hurts, what can we expect from A.J. Brown for fantasy football? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
A.J. Brown ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR11, 28 overall
Average Auction Value: $24.4
A.J. Brown Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 13 | 13 | 105 | 63 | 869 | 5 | 8.08 | 4.85 | 60.0% | 8.28 | 13.79 |
| 2020 | 14 | 12 | 106 | 70 | 1075 | 11 | 8.83 | 5.00 | 66.0% | 10.14 | 15.36 |
| 2019 | 16 | 11 | 84 | 52 | 1051 | 8 | 5.25 | 3.25 | 61.9% | 12.51 | 20.21 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 117.9 | 149.4 | 180.9 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 1.12 | 1.42 | 1.72 |
| 2020 | 177.5 | 212.5 | 247.5 | 12.7 | 15.2 | 17.7 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| 2019 | 165.1 | 191.1 | 217.1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 1.97 | 2.28 | 2.58 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1217 | 12 | 248 | 2.36 | 3.94 | 45% | 28% |
| 2020 | 1134 | 10.7 | 427 | 4.03 | 6.10 | 35% | 27% |
| 2019 | 1107 | 13.2 | 465 | 5.54 | 8.94 | 29% | 19% |
2022 A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Overview:
I love A.J. Brown, the player. Before his knee issues cropped up again last season, there was a brief time period where I had him as my fantasy football WR1. Those issues caused him to miss six games in the previous two years, but when he played, he was one of the better wide receivers in the NFL, averaging 8 targets, 5 catches, and 72 yards per game, while on pace for 10 touchdowns over 17 games. This is all because he’s one of the premier big-play receivers in the league, leading the entire NFL in 50+ yard receiving touchdowns since the Titans drafted him in 2019.
But, A.J. Brown, the situation, is where things start to get somewhat wobbly for me. The Eagles threw the football just 494 times last season, the lowest figure in the league, and A.J. Brown is leaving a situation where the Titans threw the ball 535 times per game. While this is still the seventh-fewest pass attempts per game, it’s about 2.5 more pass attempts per game than the Eagles. While I sincerely doubt that the Eagles traded a first-round pick and gave Brown $100 million to barely sniff 500 pass attempts again this year, I do fear about the distribution of said targets.
Again, I don’t doubt A.J. Brown, the talent. I also trust what I saw on tape from DeVonta Smith in college, and he was no slouch last season, getting 104 targets for 916 yards. There’s also the Dallas Goedert problem, who averaged four catches for 61 yards after the Eagles traded Zach Ertz to Arizona. There are three valuable receivers in Philadelphia, and I fear chopping up a small pie into that many pieces will leave everyone hungry, and A.J. Brown drafters disappointed.
2022 A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
A.J. Brown Salary Cap Value: $15
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
I hate to say it, but I’m out on A.J. Brown this season in snake drafts. He’s WR10, pick 26, ahead of guys like Leonard Fournette, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gibson, and Tee Higgins. This sucks, for me, because I consider myself to be a huge A.J. Brown fan. But, I just don’t see how it works for him as a top-ten wide receiver unless the Eagles significantly change their DNA on the fly, into being a pass-first team. And given their quarterback’s skill set, that would be a crazy move to make just to placate A.J. Brown target share truthers.
But, in salary cap drafts… I might just be in on A.J. Brown. He’s just $25, and getting him for just over 12% of my salary cap makes for an intriguing proposition, especially when you consider that he will likely be my WR3 in this situation (I am going all-in on Mike Evans and Keenan Allen). There’s a talent tier drop from Brown to the next guys (Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Diontae Johnson, and DJ Moore) so I might just dip my toe back in there. But, if I miss, I’m sitting around until Diontae at $14 falls into my lap.
Best Case Scenario:
A.J. Brown finally fulfills my prophecy and finishes as THE WR1.
Worst Case Scenario:
A.J. Brown gets into a fight with DeVonta Smith, who just turns sideways. Confused and disoriented by Smith disappearing in front of him (because he’s two-dimensional), A.J. Brown starts to believe in the occult and teams up with Jalen Hurts in a real-life version of Supernatural.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_J_Brown_2019_12-22.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
