It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Tyreek Hill took his talents to South Beach this offseason, trading in Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes for Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa. Can he remain a top-ten fantasy football wide receiver in Miami, after finding a lot of success in Kansas City? Let’s take a look in his fantasy football player profile!
Tyreek Hill ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR8, 19 overall
Average Auction Value: $31.3
Tyreek Hill Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 16 | 159 | 111 | 1239 | 9 | 9.94 | 6.53 | 69.8% | 7.79 | 11.16 |
| 2020 | 15 | 15 | 135 | 87 | 1276 | 15 | 9.00 | 5.80 | 64.4% | 9.45 | 14.67 |
| 2019 | 12 | 12 | 89 | 58 | 860 | 7 | 5.56 | 3.63 | 65.2% | 9.66 | 14.83 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 185.5 | 241.0 | 296.5 | 10.9 | 14.2 | 17.4 | 1.17 | 1.52 | 1.86 |
| 2020 | 241.9 | 285.4 | 328.9 | 16.1 | 19.0 | 21.9 | 1.79 | 2.11 | 2.44 |
| 2019 | 130.3 | 159.3 | 188.3 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 15.7 | 1.46 | 1.79 | 2.12 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1647 | 10 | 444 | 2.79 | 4.00 | 35% | 25% |
| 2020 | 1624 | 12.12 | 544 | 4.06 | 6.25 | 35% | 23% |
| 2019 | 1149 | 12.9 | 275 | 3.09 | 4.74 | 38% | 21% |
2022 Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Overview:
Tyreek Hill took a step back in 2021. Granted, he was still a week winner, finishing with five top-five finishes. But, he also transformed into a week loser, as he finished with eight weeks outside the top-36, with just six weeks inside the top-12 at the position, according to DynastyLeagueFootball.com’s Yearly Player Data app. This is just two more games outside the top-36 than Tyreek Hill had from 2018 to 2020, meaning the lows are getting lower.
Don’t get me wrong, the highs were still there for Tyreek Hill, as he had three of his top-ten scoring PPR games last season and five of his top-fifteen games. But, he also had five of his lowest fifteen scoring games last season, as well. He turned into a nu-DeSean Jackson, becoming wildly boom-bust en route to the final ranking evening out the trials and tribulations associated with having Tyreek Hill on your roster last season. But, what about this season, with a new squad? Should we reach into the Tyreek Hill basket?
2022 Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Tyreek Hill Salary Cap Value: $33
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Given Tua Tagovailoa’s predilection for not throwing an accurate deep ball, Tyreek Hill’s price point, and head coach Mike McDaniel’s love for The Run, I can’t find a reason I would want Tyreek Hill on my fantasy football roster. First, let’s talk about Tua not throwing a deep ball. On the surface, you could call me crazy, since his 50% deep ball completion percentage ranked first in the league. But, his catchable deep ball rate ranked fourteenth, and he threw just 28 of them (which ranked 30th), per PlayerProfiler.com. So, Tua Tagovailoa, in a full season, threw 17 catchable deep balls, just one per game. In contrast, Tyreek Hill had 26 deep targets all on his own last season.
But, could all that change with Mike McDaniel? Well, not likely, Jimmy Garoppolo also threw 17 catchable deep ball attempts last year, mostly because they didn’t want (or need) Garoppolo to be throwing those balls. And so, we have Mike McDaniel now in Miami, with essentially the same quarterback’s arm he had in San Francisco, and we think he’s going to suddenly turn this into a vertical passing attack? Not likely.
But, Tyreek Hill is getting drafted as it will be. Let someone else take that dive. In salary cap drafts, he’s $31, the same price as Mike Evans, and more expensive than Keenan Allen. Literally just pick one of those two guys and spend your $31 there, instead of on Tyreek Hill. It’s not worth it. In snake drafts, he goes one pick before Aaron Jones, just take Aaron Jones instead, as it’s possible (but unlikely) that Jones ends 2022 with more receptions than Tyreek Hill.
Best Case Scenario:
Tua Tagovailoa turns into peak Patrick Mahomes, and Tyreek Hill finishes as a top-five wide receiver.
Worst Case Scenario:
Tua Tagovailoa turns into peak Jimmy Garoppolo, and Tyreek Hill barely finishes as a top-fifty wide receiver.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/brookward/29494622864 under CC BY SA 2.0]
