It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look at a running back who should be getting a lot of publicity as a handcuff but isn’t. Is Khalil Herbert a guy we can lean on in the event of a David Montgomery injury in our 2022 fantasy football leagues? If so, is that worth a draft day selection?
Khalil Herbert ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB56, 175 overall
Average Auction Value: $1.0
Khalil Herbert Statistics:
|Year||G||GS||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||Tgt||Rec||Yards||TD||Touches||Opp||Total Yards|
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tch||HPPR Pts/Tch||PPR Pts/Tch|
2022 Khalil Herbert Fantasy Football Overview:
I am not going to mince words with Khalil Herbert, it’s highly likely that he needs a David Montgomery injury before he does enough to matter in your fantasy football leagues. But, should David Montgomery miss time due to an injury, then Khalil Herbert is a priority add in your waiver period. Should David Montgomery suffer a season-ending injury, then just empty your FAB to get Herbert onto your roster.
David Montgomery missed four games last season, and in those four games, Khalil Herbert averaged 19.5 rush attempts and 2.5 targets per game in those games, compared to just 2.5 rush attempts and 0.6 targets per game in the ten games that Herbert played with David Montgomery. Herbert played exceptionally well with that volume, turning in 96 yards and 2 receptions per game. He only scored once in those four games, but he did receive 11 red zone carries in those four games, which would have paced out to 47 red zone carries, which would have tied him for ninth in 2021. So, he will have plenty of opportunities to produce should David Montgomery get hurt.
2022 Khalil Herbert Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
I don’t handcuff. I also acknowledge that in order to get a leg up on your competition, you want to roster guys who will step into major roles if one thing changes about the team around them. In this case, it’s David Montgomery missing time. I don’t want to bet on Montgomery missing time, and I don’t want to say that he has any sort of preternatural ability to run headlong toward injuries (just five missed games in three seasons). But, I also thought that Khalil Herbert was too good when he had the ball last year to just outright ignore him.
Herbert (rightly) has an ADP in the 180s (at RB60) and is only drafted for $1 in 1% of leagues. He’s a pure handcuff, but a pure handcuff who has very little roster competition (Darrynton Evans & Trestan Ebner, two pass-catching specialists, are behind him) in the event of a David Montgomery injury. He has a clear path to playing time and if you’re in a deep league and you need that sort of flier, then Herbert is your guy.
Best Case Scenario:
David Montgomery… retires… for one year and Khalil Herbert gets the lead back role. He finishes with 1,400 total yards and ten touchdowns.
Worst Case Scenario:
David Montgomery plays the lions’ share of snaps for all seventeen games and Khalil Herbert just sits nice and relaxed on the waiver wire all season long.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: Screenshot from Chicago Bears on Twitter]