It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look at a running back who is suddenly the best weapon on his team’s offense. Aaron Jones has already been a top-flight running back in his career, but will the new-look Packers’ offense help give him an increase in touches that he needs to make his way back into the top five? Let’s take a look at Aaron Jones’ 2022 fantasy football prospects!
Aaron Jones ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB12, 21 overall
Average Auction Value: $35.2
Aaron Jones Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 15 | 15 | 171 | 799 | 4 | 65 | 52 | 391 | 6 | 223 | 236 | 1190 |
| 2020 | 14 | 14 | 201 | 1104 | 9 | 63 | 47 | 355 | 2 | 248 | 264 | 1459 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 236 | 1084 | 16 | 68 | 49 | 474 | 3 | 285 | 304 | 1558 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 4.67 | 11.4 | 53.3 | 4.33 | 3.47 | 80.0% | 6.02 | 7.52 | 14.87 | 15.73 | 79.3 |
| 2020 | 5.49 | 14.4 | 78.9 | 4.50 | 3.36 | 74.6% | 5.63 | 7.55 | 17.71 | 18.86 | 104.21 |
| 2019 | 4.59 | 14.8 | 67.8 | 4.25 | 3.06 | 72.1% | 6.97 | 9.67 | 17.81 | 19.00 | 97.38 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 177 | 203 | 229.0 | 11.80 | 13.53 | 15.3 | 0.79 | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| 2020 | 211.9 | 235.4 | 258.9 | 15.14 | 16.81 | 18.5 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| 2019 | 265.8 | 290.3 | 314.8 | 16.61 | 18.14 | 19.68 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
2022 Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Overview:
Aaron Jones was the RB11 last year, after finishing top-five in each of the two prior seasons. With Davante Adams now a Raider and the Packers not doing much to replace him, Aaron Jones is due for a big step forward from a targets perspective heading into 2022. And with that, it stands to reason that he should produce better than RB11 this season, as well.
Aaron Jones has gone nutty in every game he’s played without Davante Adams in his career. In his eight games without Adams in his career, Aaron Jones has a near-identical rushing production (11.8 rush attempts for 60.3 yards per game with Adams, 13 rush attempts for 60.4 yards per game without). But, it’s the targets where Aaron Jones shines without Davante Adams, which leads to a massive point spike. Without Adams, Jones averages an extra 2.5 targets, 2 receptions, and 31 yards per game, on a target share that nearly doubles, from 10% to 18%.
So, let’s just say that I am bullish on Aaron Jones’ prospects to finish as a top-five running back this year. After all, Aaron Rodgers loves nothing more than chemistry, so the WR2s and WR3s that make up the Packers’ receiving corps will likely take a back seat to Aaron Jones more often than not. And that means that Jones will likely be at or near the lead in running back targets, which means he will likely be at or near the lead in running back fantasy point scoring every week.
2022 Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Aaron Jones Salary Cap Value: $43
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
Aaron Jones represents my favorite fantasy football value at running back this draft season. He is $35.4 on Yahoo!, making him the RB13 by price, and a tier all to himself between Alvin Kamara ($40. 5) and Saquon Barkley ($30.7). Considering I have his upside as being alongside the guys going for $60+, I can wholeheartedly endorse going out of your way to get Aaron Jones onto your roster, especially in a PPR league.
In a snake league, he’s my second-favorite second-round pick (behind Mike Evans), and my favorite running back going in that range. It will be down to roster construction and personal preference between choosing Jones or Evans, but you can’t go wrong with either guy on your roster. If you’re picking near the turn, and you need to decide between Evans and Jones, I would go Jones over Evans, since Evans is more likely to return to you.
Best Case Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones make sweet music as the new-look Packers still rank near the top of the league on offense, and go 14-3 to get taken out by the 49ers in the playoffs yet again as Aaron Jones scores over 15 touchdowns and is the RB1. Did you know Aaron Rodgers wanted to be drafted by the 49ers? Now you do.
Worst Case Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers catches his own reflection in the mirror and wonders aloud “what the hell is that guy’s problem.” Rodgers then goes on to try to best his own reflection in an argument, causing the Packers to start Jordan Love, who leads the packers to a 3-14 record and Aaron Jones scores 1 touchdown, finishing as RB100.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2e/Aaron_Jones_%2836287699470%29.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
