It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. D’Andre Swift had himself a breakout campaign last season, his second in the league. However, injuries limited him to just 13 games for the second-straight year. What can we expect from D’Andre Swift in 2022, from a fantasy football perspective? Let’s dive in!
D’Andre Swift ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB11, Pick 16
Average Auction Value: $42
D’Andre Swift Statistics:
|Year||G||GS||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||Tgt||Rec||Yards||TD||Touches||Opp||Total Yards|
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tch||HPPR Pts/Tch||PPR Pts/Tch|
2022 D’Andre Swift Fantasy Football Overview:
D’Andre Swift was one of the most-used running backs in the NFL last season, when healthy. But, he had an outsized chunk of his looks come in the form of targets last year, so he ends up with hidden usage. Prior to his injury, D’Andre Swift touched the ball 19 times per game (13.7 rush attempts, 5.3 receptions), putting him on pace for 323 touches, which would have been fourth in the NFL, behind just Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, and Joe Mixon. Pretty good for a guy that twitter panicked would be the 1B behind Jamaal Williams thanks to completely misunderstanding coach speak.
So, for D’Andre Swift, the ceiling is as high as you can go. Granted, the team will hold him back from being a top-three running back, but even bad running backs can get 10 touchdowns on 300+ touches. Unfortunately, that’s where things get sticky: Swift has played 13 games in consecutive years, making him a good bet to miss a chunk of games. Also, I don’t believe that Swift will get 19 touches per game again this season, but his target volume should remain relatively consistent, meaning that about six targets per game is a decent starting point for Swift.
And that will work out well for Swift, considering that when he was healthy, he was an insanely productive fantasy football running back. At the time of his injury, Swift was the RB4 in PPR, as one of five running backs with over 180 PPR points to that point in the year. He had a ton of volume and produced with that volume, leaving injuries as the only Swift concern. And those injuries are already baked into his fantasy football price.
2022 D’Andre Swift Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Swift sits firmly in the backend RB1 tier of running backs, thanks to the fact that he is yet to miss fewer than 3 games in a season. By ADP, he goes in the middle of the second round (RB11, pick 17). By average salary cap draft price, he is the RB10, but with a hard price tier between the RB9 (Javonte Williams, $48.1) and Swift ($42.3). Well, I can tell you one thing: I’d rather have D’Andre Swift than Javonte Williams. Swift is likely to repeat at least a major portion of his target and carry volume, and Javonte Williams still has to break out from behind Melvin Gordon’s shadow. If you want to nitpick, Gordon was (and likely is) still the goal line back in Denver, limiting his overall upside compared to Swift, who should be the primary back in and around the goal line for the Lions.
So, by salary cap draft price, Swift represents the top of a tier drop (even though by talent and upside, he isn’t the top of a new tier). You should be able to sneak him through there by people who aren’t quite sure what to think about him at this point, especially if guys like Javonte Williams (who people apparently love) are still on the board. In snake drafts, I am likely passing on Swift. Don’t get me wrong, I really like D’Andre Swift, I just like Aaron Jones (pick 22), Mark Andrews (pick 21), and CeeDee Lamb (pick 19) more. In that case, I will likely skip over Swift, even though I’m all-in on him in salary cap drafts. Those are the vagaries of snake drafts.
Best Case Scenario:
Swift gets back to what he did before, averaging over 5 catches per game, giving him an incredible PPR floor. The Lions’ offense works as it should, and he finishes as a top-five running back.
Worst Case Scenario:
D’Andre Swift does Dan Campbell a favor and picks up his crazy coffee order, except he orders it all decaf. Without his caffeine hit, Campbell’s head explodes like Scanners and Swift is in the shrapnel zone. He doesn’t make it.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Header Image Source: D’Andre Swift on Instagram]