As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Keenan Allen was a borderline WR1 in 2020. Can the Chargers’ offense take a step forward, buoying Allen’s fantasy value? Or will Captain Justin Herbert take a step back, causing the team to sink to the dark bottom of the ocean, suffocating everyone aboard as the icy waters slowly creep into their lungs? I have a violent fear of boats that I am trying to work through in this player profile.
2021 Keenan Allen ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR10, Pick 25
Average Auction Value: $23.3
Keenan Allen Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2020 | 14 | 13 | 147 | 100 | 992 | 8 | 11.31 | 7.14 | 68.0% | 6.75 | 9.92 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 149 | 104 | 1199 | 6 | 9.31 | 6.50 | 69.8% | 8.05 | 11.53 |
| 2018 | 16 | 14 | 136 | 97 | 1196 | 6 | 8.50 | 6.06 | 71.3% | 8.79 | 12.33 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2020 | 145.1 | 195.1 | 245.1 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 17.5 | 0.99 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 2019 | 157.5 | 209.5 | 261.5 | 9.8 | 13.1 | 16.3 | 1.06 | 1.41 | 1.76 |
| 2018 | 163.1 | 211.6 | 260.1 | 10.2 | 13.2 | 16.3 | 1.20 | 1.56 | 1.91 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2020 | 1071 | 7 | 423 | 2.88 | 4.23 | 27% | 27% |
| 2019 | 1501 | 10.1 | 374 | 2.51 | 3.60 | 30% | 25% |
| 2018 | 1183 | 8.6 | 408 | 2.98 | 4.25 | 33% | 29% |
2021 Keenan Allen Overview
People were afraid that Tyrod Taylor would limit Allen’s production. That ended. Then Justin Herbert, eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year came in and gave Allen 139 targets over the next 13 games. If that had been a whole season, Allen would have led the league in targets. With a rookie quarterback! Herbert more than likely has another gear to speed up the motorboat that is the 2020 Chargers, after they finished with the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL. But will that motorboat hit a rocky shoal and explode, flipping upside down so that its passengers cannot escape a fiery grave?
We also need to look at any potential changes to the Chargers’ offense this offseason. The head coach is out. The new head coach is a defense guy, so we have to look to the new O.C. That’s Vince Lombardi’s grandson if that’s something you care about. He is best known for successfully molding Drew Brees and unsuccessfully molding the Lions’ passing game.
So you have to ask yourself: is the Chargers’ offense more like Detroit or more like New Orleans? To answer that, we need to check the geography: While Los Angeles is a few hundred feet above sea level, Detroit is a whopping 600 feet above sea level. Plus, there’s that whole ocean thing. So, altogether, Los Angeles is much more likely to develop into a wasteland Waterworld scenario after getting hit by a giant tidal wave. So it’s more like New Orleans, football-speaking.
2021 Keenan Allen Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Keenan Allen Auction Value: $28
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
I’m going to be blunt: Allen is the closest thing to a steal you’re going to get in the first 3 rounds. He is a target monster, making his floor much higher than pretty much anyone else you’re going to get in round 3. He’s only 29, too, and is yet to lose his speed. Justin Herbert could reasonably blossom into a monster, a megalodon of the NFL who chomps through defenses like the prehistoric giant shark could chomp through me in a rowboat.
At an auction, I want him, but only for a decent price. My whole strategy this year is predicated around never paying WR1 money for any wideout. Mid-$20s is usually the most I can do. In my ~30 mock auctions with real humans, he goes for that amount more often than not. Occasionally he will even fall to the teens.
That may seem shocking, and it is, but it makes sense: There is so much more capital being thrown at the top RBs, WRs, and TEs, the bottom falls out of the wide receiver market sooner this year than ever before. Just like the bottom of a glass-bottomed boat can fall out when a drunken teenager falls onto it, creating a nightmare of horror as the bewildered teen can’t get any sense of direction and panics, pulling the girl he was crushing on at the time into the briny depths as well. This is just something I’ve heard, let’s move on.
Best Case Scenario:
Allen finishes as a top-half WR1 with the fewest off-games in terms of fantasy of any 2021 wide receiver. I get therapy.
Worst Case Scenario:
Herbert takes a step back. He’s still going to pepper Allen, clearly, so I’d be surprised if Allen finishes worse than the top-fifteen at his position. I get therapy from a pirate.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5d/Antonio_Cromartie%2C_Keenan_Allen_2014.jpg under SA cc-2.0]
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