It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We’ve run through 20 quarterbacks and 40 running backs; that means it’s time to get to the deepest and most varied position! That’s right, we’re on to the wide receivers! We continue our look-through with a guy who everyone is overthinking. Can 2021 Michael Thomas be the absolute steal of your fantasy football drafts?
Michael Thomas ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): WR9, Pick 29
Average Auction Value: $22.8 (WR12)
Michael Thomas Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2020 | 7 | 5 | 55 | 40 | 438 | 0 | 11.00 | 5.71 | 72.7% | 7.96 | 10.95 |
| 2019 | 16 | 15 | 185 | 149 | 1725 | 9 | 11.56 | 9.31 | 80.5% | 9.32 | 11.58 |
| 2018 | 16 | 16 | 147 | 125 | 1405 | 9 | 9.19 | 7.81 | 85.0% | 9.56 | 11.24 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2020 | 43.9 | 63.9 | 83.9 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 0.80 | 1.16 | 1.53 |
| 2019 | 225.6 | 300.1 | 374.6 | 14.1 | 18.8 | 23.4 | 1.22 | 1.62 | 2.02 |
| 2018 | 190.5 | 253.0 | 315.5 | 11.9 | 15.8 | 19.7 | 1.30 | 1.72 | 2.15 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2020 | 524 | 10 | 82 | 1.49 | 2.05 | 48% | 30% |
| 2019 | 1488 | 8 | 583 | 3.15 | 3.91 | 40% | 32% |
| 2018 | 1135 | 7.8 | 470 | 3.22 | 3.82 | 30% | 29% |
2021 Michael Thomas Fantasy Football Overview:
Did we just all forget how good Michael Thomas is at fantasy football? He struggled mightily with injuries in 2020, playing more than 60% of snaps in just five games, and missing 9 games in the process. In a wild turn of events, he played two full games with Drew Brees in 2020, both against Tampa Bay. So, all we have is a fits-and-starts sample set that includes passes thrown by Brees, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill. Therein lies the issue with prognosticating Michael Thomas’ 2021.
But, let’s just look at his games when he was in the flow of it, the four games he played with Taysom Hill in 2020. In those four games, he averaged 9.3 targets, 7.5 catches, and 85.8 yards per game. He didn’t score a touchdown, but you could point to a four-game stretch where that’s true of nearly every other wide receiver in 2020. So, with regards to 2021 Michael Thomas… What are we scared of? What’s the deal, here? Are you afraid he ends up with Taysom, who gave him 16 PPR points per game, or are you scared he will end up with Jameis, who supported Mike Evans for ages?
Michael Thomas is an alpha wide receiver and the #1 receiving threat by a massive margin on the New Orleans Saints. Don’t overthink this.
2021 Michael Thomas Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Michael Thomas Auction Value: $25
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Get Michael Thomas! If you come out of your draft with Thomas and A.J. Brown in the second and third rounds, or for about $60 in your salary cap drafts, then learn how to do backflips; you’ll be doing them. Thomas is getting drafted at his absolute floor. Last year I called JuJu Smith-Schuster “the easiest third-round pick I’d ever make.” I take it back, he’s been usurped exactly one year later. Thomas has guaranteed volume in this offense. He has legitimate 170 target potential this season, and you can get him in the third round?
To me, that makes Michael Thomas… the easiest third-round pick you’ll ever make… until the next one, it seems.
Best Case Scenario:
He returns to his prior form, shaking his injury bug and getting ten targets per game, and finishes as WR1.
Worst Case Scenario:
He can’t shake the injury bug that caught him last year, and he falls in-and-out of your lineup all season.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/painting-with-pixels/42584602194 under CC BY SA 2.0]
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