2021 A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Player Profile

A.J. Brown Tennessee Titans

It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We’ve run through 20 quarterbacks and 40 running backs; that means it’s time to get to the deepest and most varied position! That’s right, we’re on to the wide receivers! I’m starting with the guy at the top of my ranks for 2021: A.J. Brown. The home run hitter has the upside to finish as the top dog, and I’ll explain why!

A.J. Brown ADP & AAV:

Average Draft Position (HPPR): WR7, Pick 23
Average Auction Value: $38.9 (WR6)

A.J. Brown Statistics:
Year G GS Tgt Rec Yards TD Tgt/G Rec/G Rec% Yds/Tgt Yds/Rec
2020 14 12 106 70 1075 11 8.83 5.00 66.0% 10.14 15.36
2019 16 11 84 52 1051 8 5.25 3.25 61.9% 12.51 20.21
Year Std Pts HPPR Pts PPR Pts Pts/G HPPR Pts/G PPR Pts/G Pts/Tgt HPPR Pts/Tgt PPR Pts/Tgt
2020 177.5 212.5 247.5 12.7 15.2 17.7 1.67 2.00 2.33
2019 165.1 191.1 217.1 10.3 11.9 13.6 1.97 2.28 2.58
Year Air Yards aDOT YAC YAC/Tgt YAC/Rec AYMS Tgt MS
2020 1134 11 427 4.03 6.10 35% 27%
2019 1107 13.2 465 5.54 8.94 29% 19%
2021 A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Overview:

Where to start? People are inventing narratives as to not like A.J. Brown. First, it was that letting Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis walk and replacing them with Josh Reynolds signaled that the Titans weren’t going to pass as much this year. Then, replacing Smith and Davis with Josh Reynolds and Julio Jones meant that we needed to fade A.J. Brown because the targets would go elsewhere. I just want to know what kind of Goldilocks signings would have made these folks happy, since neither works for them.

Anyway, 2021 A.J. Brown. In 2020, A.J. Brown was on and off the field with leg injuries in week one, and missed weeks two and three. When the Titans returned from their week four Bye, he was as dominant as ever. In those 13 games, he paced out to 80 catches for 1,275 yards and 14 touchdowns. People want to tell you that he can’t be a WR1 because he averaged just 7.5 targets per game in that span. They will say he can’t get 150 targets. What, and hear me out, he averages an extra 1.33 targets per game? That’s it, that’s the difference between what he had and what gets him to 150 targets.

Or, maybe he just stops being as good with his targets? After all, if you’re averaging 10.57 yards per target, you get a lot fewer targets… because you’re dancing in the end zone. Turn it into 8.5 yards per target and bump up his targets, if it makes you more comfortable. After all, he leads the NFL in 50+ yard receiving plays in the last two years. Also, A.J. Brown is the only player with at least five 60+ yard receiving plays in the last two years.

So, maybe the low target volume isn’t so bad?

2021 A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:

A.J. Brown Auction Value: $35
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!

Get A.J. Brown. Look at that sentence again. Absorb it, underline it. Mull it over for a bit. He’s the most explosive wide receiver in the NFL, and he plays for an offense perfectly built to maximize his skill set. Give him Julio Jones as a more efficient version of Corey Davis, and it’s all systems go for Brown. I’m waiting and taking him in the second round of my drafts when I can, and letting others snatch up the Davantes Adam and Tyreeks Hill, while I soak up that value. You’ll have to see their player profiles to know why I am not as up on them as I am up on A.J. Brown. Needless to say, the regression bug is coming for both of them in 2021. And as for A.J. Brown? The sky’s the limit.

Best Case Scenario:

He ends the year as WR1, consistently dancing in the end zone, despite only getting a paltry 140 targets.

Worst Case Scenario:

He finishes the year as WR10, dancing in the end zone fewer times, but making you more comfortable with his target load.

Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.

Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!


quarterback Beersheets Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers New England Patriots

[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]

[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_J_Brown_2019_12-22.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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