2021 Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Player Profile

Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins quarterback sleepers

It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa struggled in his rookie campaign, twice getting benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Fitzpatrick now a Football Team, up in Washington, what can we expect for 2021 Tua Tagovailoa for fantasy football purposes?

2021 Tua Tagovailoa ADP & AAV:

Average Draft Position: QB21, Pick 154
Average Auction Value: $1 (T-QB24)

Tua Tagovailoa Statistics
Year G GS Att Comp Comp% Yds TD Int Att/G Comp/G Yds/G TD/G INT/G
2020 10 9 290 186 64.1% 1814 11 5 29.0 18.6 181.4 1.1 0.5
Year 4 PPTD 6 PPTD 4 PPTD/G 6 PPTD/G Year Rush Ru Yds Ru TD YPC Ru Att/G Ru Yd/G
2020 135.5 157.5 13.6 15.75 2020 36 109 3 3.0 3.6 10.9
Year Air Yards aDOT aDOT+ Y/A TD% INT% Sacks Yds/Sack
2020 2292 7.9 0.17 6.26 3.8% 1.7% 20 6.80

aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average

2021 Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Overview:

On the surface, Tua Tagovailoa didn’t have a great rookie campaign. He started just nine games, and the Dolphins pulled him early in two of them. I’m starting to wonder if we are jumping to conclusions. After all, he cracked his hip in his last college game, and we weren’t sure if he would even play in 2020. Getting into 9 games honestly feels like a win. He couldn’t quite get his sea legs, averaging just 200 passing yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions per game.

There’s a lot riding on Tua’s upside. His 10.9 rushing yards per game won’t cut it if he has a shot at turning into a top-ten quarterback. If you don’t rush, I don’t want you for fantasy football. He also needs to pass a lot more. Tua averaged just 32 pass attempts per game and had an aDOT of 7.9 yards. Throwing very little and not far downfield doesn’t produce a lot of fantasy points. Certainly, adding Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle will help clear that up.

Let’s pop the hood on Tua’s stats by looking at his advanced statistics on PlayerProfiler.com. First, he ranked top-ten in pressured completion percentage. That speaks to his ability to produce outside of structure when the play breaks down. Second, his catchable pass rate ranked third. Now, a lot of this has to do with him only throwing to wide-open receivers, but that’s still a very good number to see.

He ranked sixteenth among QBs with 9 red zone carries, and tenth with 3 touchdowns, in just 9 starts. This could be the big growth opportunity for Tua Tagovailoa, and the reason why we smack our heads wondering why we took him after Kirk Cousins in our 2021 fantasy football drafts.

2021 Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:

Tua Tagovailoa Auction Value: $3
Draft Ranking: Want rankings tailored to your league settings in a Beersheet? (coming early July)

Tua Tagovailoa is dead free in almost all draft formats and is someone that you should look at as an upside play on your fantasy football roster. If your 1QB strategy is to try to get two upside guys at QB, then Tua should be one of them. Don’t mess around with your Derek Carrs or Matt Ryans of the world; they don’t run enough to matter in 1QB leagues. Go toward Tua Tagovailoa in the last round of your drafts. If you’re worried that you might miss out on Tua, then see Trevor Lawrence coming off the board as a signal to snag Tua, instead of taking him in the last round.

Let’s not forget his draft day upside was Russell Wilson, or a more mobile Drew Brees. Top-eight his first full year starting is well within his grasp.

Best Case Scenario:

Tua Tagovailoa puts it all together, and his new weapons help kickstart this passing attack. He finishes with about 600 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns, and throws for enough yardage and touchdowns to supplement that into a top-eight quarterback.

Worst Case Scenario:

He simply refuses to pass the football because nobody is wide open. Tua just dodges defenders for minutes at a time, refusing to actually let go of the football. They run one play per quarter with Tua doing this.

Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here

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quarterback Beersheets Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers New England Patriots

[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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