It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. Last year’s #1 overall selection, Joe Burrow, saw his season tragically cut short by an ACL injury. Luckily, the Cincinnati Bengals didn’t get a generational offensive tackle (Penei Sewell) to protect him. Instead, they got Joe Burrow his old college teammate, Ja’Marr Chase (WR). Can 2021 Joe Burrow successfully evade pass rushers enough to turn him into a fantasy football value for your squads?
2021 Joe Burrow ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB11, Pick 90
Average Auction Value: $1.8 (Q13)
Joe Burrow Statistics
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||YPC||Ru Att/G||Ru Yd/G|
aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average
2021 Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Overview:
Joe Burrow has one of the best sets of offensive weapons that a young quarterback could ask for; Tee Higgins as a reliable downfield threat, Ja’Marr Chase as a true alpha to bully other receivers, and a reliable release valve with Tyler Boyd. Joe Mixon can also catch a ball or two, so Joe Burrow is set up with a sweet set of weapons. Unfortunately, he also has one of the worst lines in the NFL. Burrow was sacked 32 times last year, in just 10 games. If one such sack hadn’t ended his season, he would have ended up around 51 sacks; the second-most sacks of a rookie quarterback since 2010. The OL is bad, and it’s not getting much better with scant resources spent there this offseason.
While the offensive line isn’t all that helpful, Burrow does help himself out, throwing the ball over 40 times per game. If he had kept that pace up, he would have topped Andrew Luck’s rookie pass attempts record by about 19 passes. That level of faith in Burrow as a rookie gives me faith that the Bengals will let Burrow throw. Despite his struggles with the line, Burrow rewarded the Bengals when he threw, throwing interceptions at the second-lowest rate among all rookie quarterbacks ever (minimum 200 pass attempts). There’s a lot to like about Burrow with his new weapons, a rebuilt knee helping him run, and the full faith and weight of the Bengals organization behind him.
2021 Joe Burrow Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
If you want to wait just a little bit at quarterback, then you can go get Joe Burrow. He has the potential rushing upside and an entire bevy of weapons to give him a shot to be the newest guy in the Josh Allen or Ryan Tannehill dual threat, running/passing mold. He has that sort of upside, and is going at the backend of the QB1 ranks, so if you want to snag him, go for it. The Joe Burrow pick does have some sort of downside, however. Given that the Bengals invested almost nothing in the offensive line, and that he’s recovering from an ACL tear, the chance that he doesn’t run anymore exists. This is similar to what happened to Carson Wentz, which sent his career somewhat wobbly for a while.
If I’m picking in the Joe Burrow range, I’m looking to shore that up with another upside play. Burrow is going one pick before Matthew Stafford, so if he doesn’t run, there’s a chance you get dime store Matthew Stafford at Matthew Stafford prices.
Best Case Scenario:
Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase strike fear into the hearts of secondaries while Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon run roughshod over defenses. 2021 Joe Burrow finishes as a top-five fantasy football QB.
Worst Case Scenario:
Remember Derek Carr’s brother, David?
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]