It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. I continue my portion of the rundown of the position with Dak Prescott, whose season suddenly ended in week five last year with a gruesome ankle injury. With the ankle injury supposedly behind him, does Dak Prescott have being the #1 quarterback in him?
2021 Dak Prescott ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB5, Pick 51
Average Auction Value: $8.6 (QB4)
Dak Prescott Statistics
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||YPC||Ru Att/G||Ru Yd/G|
aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average
2021 Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Overview:
Last season, we saw Dak Prescott for four full games, getting an amuse-bouche of what he could be with all this weaponry at his disposal. Then, disaster struck and he suffered a dislocated ankle (which I can still see in my brain!). But he was on a historic passing yardage pace, averaging 371 passing yards per game while supporting all three of his fantasy-relevant wide receivers, as well as a tight end and a running back. The touchdowns were a little low, and the interceptions were a little too high. Except for the insane shootout (defense optional) game against Seattle, he threw for just five touchdowns and three picks in four games.
I have two questions with Dak Prescott: can his offensive line, which fell apart last season, protect him this year? That one is easy: I sure hope so. La’el Collins, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin, arguably the three best players on that line, missed some or all of 2020. Getting them back will help protect Dak (and block for Ezekiel Elliott). We will have to wait and see how much Dallas lets him run with these guys protecting him, however.
The other question: how much of the first 25% of 2020 was a mirage? Well, he torched two teams (Seattle and Cleveland) who finished inside the top ten in passing DVOA last season. He also played just one team in the bottom-ten in DVOA when active: the New York Giants, against whom he dislocated his ankle. I have faith that Prescott will continue his free-wheeling ways, though I have little doubt he will be conservative with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup all on the field at once.
2021 Dak Prescott Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
There’s a group of four quarterbacks behind Patrick Mahomes, the contenders to the QB1 crown. They are Dak, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. I like all of these players, with none of them falling outside my top-five. Prescott is my second favorite of this group, behind Jackson. I have him projected as my QB3 at this point, but he’s getting drafted as the QB4 off the board. That works really well if you’re like me and you like Dak and LJax more than Kyler and Josh Allen. Use Kyler and Josh Allen coming off the board as your trigger to take Dak Prescott if you want to get him. Then, if he comes off the board, Lamar Jackson at QB5 will certainly make you very happy.
There is some sort of downside to Dak, here, given his draft day price. The touchdowns are headscratchers, and the passing yardage is way too high to sustain (he was on pace to smash the passing yardage record by 1,200 yards through his first four games). Dak did seem to unlock a new aspect of his game, rushing for three touchdowns against Arizona. This is likely a level up from Dak, who flew a little too close to the sun when he leveled up. He has all the weapons to succeed, those aren’t the problem.
Best Case Scenario:
The 6,700 passing yard pace wasn’t a mirage and the Dallas Cowboys offense rules the NFL as an unstoppable behemoth. Unfortunately, the world bestriding colossus is still saddled with the Dallas Cowboys defense and the team goes 9-8.
Worst Case Scenario:
I mean, no matter what happens, he will likely end the season with all his extremities still firmly attached. So, that can’t be worse than last year.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]