Every summer, we take a deep dive into the fantasy football average draft position (ADP) of players on each real-life NFL team. We do this so that we can determine which guys are undervalued, overvalued, or valued just right. As we Goldilocks this ADP, our draft board forms based on our opinions of players and where they go in fantasy football drafts. Since drafters draft (mostly) by site algorithms, site algorithms drive ADP on that site. So, we use FantasyPros’ aggregate average draft position data in order to smooth out those edges. To really smooth out the edges, I will use half-PPR average draft position, which you can find here. We continue our series with the 2021 New York Giants.
The New York Giants might once again be a team in transition. Their head coach, Joe Judge, struggled out of the gate but seems to have ensconced himself in New York. Unfortunately, it looks like it might be the last ride for Daniel Jones if he doesn’t get his act together. Especially when you consider that Jones is now has a fully stocked cabinet of weaponry and a good left tackle to defend his blindside. He’s out of excuses, so let’s see how he plays. Nobody expects much from the New York Giants this year, except the New York Giants. Vegas projects them for a 7-10 record. Like every team with a sub-.500 projected win total, it’s hard to find a good sleeper, breakout, and bust, but we will do our best with the 2021 New York Giants!
Sleeper: Daniel Jones, Quarterback (QB32, 256 OVR)
Daniel Jones hasn’t been all that great so far in his NFL career as a quarterback. But, he has been the most efficient running quarterback over the last five seasons (if you remove kneel downs). The Giants just need to unleash him a little bit more and let him run… and before you say “well the 80-yard run skews things,” without the 80-yard run he still ranks third in QB yards per carry over the last half-decade. That gives him a decent floor, and he now has something to build on. For virtually the first time in his career, he will have a fully stocked weaponry cabinet, with Kenny Golladay atop the squad he played with last year.
I know it’s hard to get excited about Daniel Jones, and I am not advocating for him in a 1QB league, but at QB32 (of 32 starters), he should turn in good value in your Superflex or 2QB leagues, especially with nowhere to go but up for him. He threw 11 touchdowns and was QB33 (again, of 32) on a per-game basis, but he played one game with his full complement of weapons and ended up with 279 passing yards, 2 touchdowns (and 2 picks) in that game. He’s all upside, and no downside, at his price.
Breakout: Evan Engram, Tight End (TE17, 151 OVR)
I feel good about an Evan Engram bounce-back campaign. The man simply cannot drop as many footballs as he did in 2020, he just can’t. PlayerProfiler credits Evan Engram with 10 drops last year after he dropped just four balls in 2018 and 2019 combined. That alone will give Engram a positive boost upwards from his 58% catch rate in 2020; which will increase everything about him. Should Engram get his catch rate up and bounce back on his touchdown rate, we are off to the races. He’s done It before, posting one of the best rookie tight end fantasy football seasons of all time.
The talent is there, he just needs to get it all together to pop. He’s currently towards the end of the tight end blob, which means the value is there. If he isn’t good, you can just move on from him to get one of the sturdy tight ends that will inevitably end up on the waiver wire in your standard-sized fantasy football leagues.
Bust: Kenny Golladay, Wide Receiver (WR20, 54 OVR)
I don’t feel great about wide receivers who switch teams, at least not in their first season. NumberFire did a great breakdown of this, which you can find here. The ultimate takeaway is that about 30% of players did better with their new team (adding at least 1 PPR fantasy point per game), and that production doesn’t really follow draft price. With that, and solely that in mind, I am fading Kenny Golladay this season. I think that he is a phenomenal player and that he can click with Daniel Jones. Unfortunately, I am just not all that interested in investing in him in the test case season, where we figure out if he will be good or not with Daniel Jones.
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